FXUS65 KMSO 130804
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
104 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Through This Afternoon: Benign weather continues for most, with
  stubborn valley fog and stratus for a few valleys.

- This Weekend: Minor pass level snow impacts along with a valley
  rain/snow mix.

- Next Week: Cooler, active pattern with snow levels to most
  valleys floors beginning late Tuesday onward. Moderate winter
  road impact potential.

One more day of warmer than normal temperatures, although with the
increasing cloud cover, afternoon temperatures may not be as warm
as previous days.

The ridge breaks down this evening and periods of light
precipitation can be expected through Sunday. Generally, at pass
level or higher it will be all snow, while valleys may receive
snow during the overnights but after sunrise expect rain or a
rain/ snow mix. Impacts to roads should be minimal, except during
the overnight periods, especially overnight Saturday into Sunday.
While precipitation is expected to be light Lookout Pass could
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow from 6 pm Saturday through noon
Sunday, this could be a period of time that may warrant a winter
weather advisory in future forecasts.

By next week, a large trough settles over the western U.S., shifting the
Northern Rockies into a cooler, active pattern. Impacts will evolve as snow
levels lower to most valley floors by late Tuesday, likely remaining there
through the week with rounds of light to moderate precipitation. There are
also signals of modified Arctic air spilling over the Divide into northwest
Montana as early as Monday night. Unfortunately, current guidance keeps the
deepest moisture plume directed well to our south into California and the
Desert Southwest with only light to moderate precipitation
amounts this far north. Regardless, this pattern marks a distinct
change from the recent mild, dry weather, bringing moderate winter
road impact potential to the region - especially for area passes
and northwest Montana valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail across the Northern
Rockies airspace through today as high pressure remains in
control. While the ridge holds, expect an increase in high-to-mid-
level cloud cover compared to recent days as moisture begins to
stream in aloft.

A multi-day light precipitation event is expected tonight through
Monday.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$