FXUS65 KBOI 222130
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
230 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Breezy, mild weather
will continue tonight while clouds gradually increase from the
southwest.  Light rain will begin in northern CWA mountains
toward morning and slowly increase there through the day. The
southern 2/3 of our CWA will be cloudy and mild but should stay
dry. Rain will spread south Monday night and increase in intensity
overnight, with snow level near 5500 feet MSL north to 6500 feet
south, or above most populated areas. Moderate to heavy pcpn will
fall throughout the CWA Tuesday, supplied by a strong surge of
subtropical Pacific moisture. Snow level will rise even further
from already high values, to 6200 feet north and 8000 feet south
Tuesday evening, before finally lowering in eastern OR toward
morning. Rain will also begin to taper off in eastern OR toward
Wednesday morning but will continue in ID. Total pcpn from Monday
evening through Wednesday morning has been slightly from earlier
forecasts, now .50 to 1.25 inch in ID north of the Snake Basin,
.50 to .75 inch in south-central ID, and .25 to 50 inch in
eastern OR, the Treasure Valley, and southwest ID Highlands.
Accumulating snow will be confined to elevations above 6500 feet
in ID, with accumulations there estimated 6 to 15 inches.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...A progressive cold front
will arrive from the north Wednesday morning, ushering in drier
air while steadily lowering snow levels throughout the day.
Showers will be present during the front's arrival, with the
highest confidence (60-70% chance) favoring the mountains of
southwest Idaho. The cold advection will bring the snow levels
down to 3500 ft in the north and 5000 ft in the south, allowing
for light snow accumulations over mid/high elevations before the
moisture exits the region by Wednesday evening. The presence of
the front and a robust mid-level flow will also trigger strong,
gusty winds across south-central Idaho, with breezy conditions
expected elsewhere. Despite the cooler airmass, Wednesday's
high temps will remain slightly above seasonal normals.

Toward the end of the week, an Arctic low pressure system will
extend across the north-central U.S., while a Pacific trough
sits alongside the West Coast. A few stray showers on the back
side of the arctic low are possible in northeast Oregon and
west-central Idaho on Thursday and Friday (20% chance). Then,
rain chances increase across the area this coming weekend with
the possible return of Pacific moisture. Because model members
currently disagree on how much moisture to expect, specific
timing and locations remain uncertain. Throughout the extended
period, temperatures will stay mild with breezy afternoons
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. A 15% chance of showers in the mtns around
KBKE, which could obscure higher terrain. Surface winds: E-S
10-20 kt. Gusts to 20-35 kt in the Snake Plain and E Oregon.
Winds decreasing this evening. LLWS returning tonight across
SE Oregon (KBNO). Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 30-50 kt over
SE Oregon, and 15-30 kt over SW Idaho.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 10-20 kt, gusts to 20-30 kt,
decreasing to 8-15 kt by late afternoon/evening.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH