FXUS63 KBIS 240304 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 904 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain near or above average through Friday and then are favored to trend cooler this weekend. - Windy with low to medium chances (20% to 50%) for a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain tonight. Another chance (30% to 60%) for mainly snow (rain/snow mix southwest) on Wednesday. - Higher uncertainties for precipitation next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Cold frontal boundary on a relatively southwest to northeast axis is closing in on northwestern North Dakota, and has recently passed through Regina, Saskatchewan. Compressional heating ahead of the cold front has resulted in about a 5 to 6 degree rise in temperatures. For example, Weyburn, Saskatchewan, (about halfway between Crosby and Regina) has rapidly increased from 33 to 39 degrees as the front approaches. Some radar echoes exist ahead of the front, but model forecast soundings maintain a significant dry layer near the surface. While upstream Canadian observations remain limited overall, those that are reporting precipitation are mainly in trailing low-level stratus and mainly as snow. Along with model forecast soundings, this indicates that by the time the aforementioned dry layer is able to saturate, much colder temperatures aloft bring near-surface saturation down into the DGZ resulting in mostly snow. Thus, it seems like the end result is starting to favor light snow/flurries (perhaps mixed with some rain in the southwest) over freezing rain. Still, will keep an eye on things through the night should this prove inaccurate and impactful freezing rain manages to develop. UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Currently, limited upstream observations in central Alberta and Saskatchewan show only snow falling, though temperatures are much colder up there and in the single digits. As a cold frontal boundary begins entering northwestern ND later this evening and passing through the state overnight, there remains some question in just how much moisture will get through a fairly dry layer and what the precipitation types will be. Overall, any precipitation accumulations, whether in the form of liquid or snow, look to be light. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Currently, quasi-zonal flow over the Northern Plains with broad upper level ridging centered over the Rockies and a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS. South/southeasterly return flow over the Dakotas this afternoon, with a steady southerly sfc wind (strongest central and east). A mix of clouds and sun with upper level clouds southwest, mid level clouds north, and a clear sky currently southeast. Milder airmass has built into the region with the flow aloft and with the southerly flow/WAA ahead of a clipper system set to move through tonight. Mid level wave/clipper along with an upper level jet streak will push an associated sfc low and cold front through the region tonight, resulting in a swath of light precipitation developing south with the FROPA. Models continue to indicate a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and all rain, dependent on sfc temperatures and ice aloft. Latest BUFKIT has trended away from the freezing rain potential. Regardless, forcing aloft is minimal so not expecting much moisture reaching the surface with this wave/FROPA. Gusty northwest winds develop in the wake of the front, along with cooler temperatures moving into the region. Tuesday temperatures will likely be steady or falling during the daytime hours. Wind headlines are possible, though right now magnitudes look marginal advisory levels with BUFKIT mixing layer analysis showing up to 35 knots available, and the stronger winds most likely occurring right with the FROPA. A west-northwesterly flow pattern will be in place for the remainder of the week, keeping temperatures at or above normal through Friday. Another S/WV and frontal passage occur later Tue night through Wednesday, bringing another decent chance for precipitation to the Dakotas. All snow is expected outside of the southwest, where a rain/snow mix continues to be forecast. Stronger forcing with this wave with models showing decent Div Q/lower level frontogenesis linkage, so a bit more moisture/QPF is expected upwards to around a tenth of an inch or so. Given the banding potential, localized higher precip amounts are possible, and indeed the latest CAMs have trending towards this with a few of the high res solutions showing pockets of 2 inch snowfall amounts. Afterwards, ensembles depict a broad troughing pattern over Canada into the northern CONUS, with a steady west/northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Models also favor a stronger cold FROPA Fri-Fri night, trending temperatures colder and below normal for this coming weekend. Snow will likely accompany the cold front along and behind, and NBM has accordingly increased POPs Fri night through Sunday. Beyond this weekend, large spread in ensemble guidance regarding any precipitation chances, along with NBM still showing a 20-35 degree high temperature spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles. Overall though we look to trend warmer, just uncertain to what degree. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 604 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 A passing cold frontal boundary later this evening through the overnight hours will bring the potential for a light wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow. In addition, MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings will accompany this system, especially in northern and eastern parts of the state tonight and into Tuesday morning. As the front approaches, and before gusty northwesterly surface winds develop, LLWS is expected at all terminals. Though LLWS in the southwest, including KDIK, may be a little more patchy in nature. Gusty northwesterly winds will then begin to gradually diminish from west to east through the day Tuesday, though will remain at least breezy in most locations, most of the day. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Telken