FXUS65 KBOI 012135
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
235 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...At 2 PM MST radar
echoes were increasing in Malheur and Owyhee Counties, still
well east of the supporting Pacific upper low off California
40/129. The low was moving eastward and has accelerated since
this morning. It will pass through northern California tonight
and northern Nevada Monday and bring widespread showers to our
southern zones overnight through Monday evening, with fewer
showers in northern zones. Rainfall during that time should
total .20 to .50 inch in western Idaho, and .05 to .20 inch
in eastern Oregon. We kept a slight (10-15%) chance of
thunderstorms in southern Harney and Malheur Counties this
evening.  Showers will decrease from west to east late Monday
and Monday evening as the weakening upper low exits eastward
into Wyoming. Light winds tonight will become northwest 10 to
15 mph Monday behind the departing low. Clearing skies and
diminishing winds will allow Monday night to be 8 to 14 degrees
cooler than tonight, but Tuesday will warm rapidly into the 50s
to lower 60s under temporary upper ridging, likely the warmest
day of the week. The next upper trough will approach from the
Gulf of Alaska Tuesday night and will be colder than Monday's
trough. Rain and snow showers will reach Baker and Valley
Counties toward Wednesday morning while clouds in our other
zones from the west.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...An upper level trough
brings a cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. The frontal system will bring
widespread precipitation, colder temperatures, and gusty winds.
Precipitation chances peak Wednesday evening at 80-90% for the
entire area. Snow levels at this time will be 5-6 kft MSL,
before lowering to 3-4 kft MSL Thursday morning. Lower
elevations will see 0.10-0.30 inches of rainfall, while
mountainous areas see 0.40-0.80 inches of rain/liquid
equivalent and 2 to 6 inches of snow. At the same time, wind
gusts Wednesday evening reach 20-30 mph, focused along highlands
and ridgetops. Showers will linger in the mountains Thursday
and Friday as the flow turns northwesterly and high pressure
builds in the North Pacific. Temps after the Wednesday night
cold front drop to a few degrees below normal, and the building
high pressure warms us back up to 5-10 degrees above normal come
next weekend. While the main storm track will be north of the
area, models have just enough moisture flux in our mountains to
keep a 10-30% chance of precipitation through the weekend.
Although, subsequent model runs, especially among ensembles
seems to be reducing the amount of precipitation expected
following the Wednesday front.

&&

.AVIATION...Light rain showers increasing this afternoon and
evening, lasting through tomorrow afternoon. This afternoon,
moderate precip rates from stronger showers coincide with a
10% chance of lightning in SE OR and near the ID/NV border.
Snow levels drop from 7-8 kft MSL today to 6-7 kft MSL Monday.
MVFR-IFR ceilings are possible in precipitation. Surface winds:
variable and light, localized gusts up to 20 kt near strong
showers. Winds aloft at 10 kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Low VFR and overcast rain chances increase this afternoon,
with light rain possible through Monday afternoon. Stronger
showers this afternoon may bring brief moderate rainfall. Winds
remain light and variable.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM