FXUS63 KBIS 031456
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
856 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog through this morning. Dense fog will occur at
  times, especially northwest and north central.

- Mild and dry weather with a warming trend continuing for most
  areas through Wednesday.

- Cooler Thursday and Friday with low chances for rain and
  snow.

- Another modest warmup favored for this weekend, then cooler
  with increasing chances for precipitation early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Low stratus has continued its expansion south across parts of
central North Dakota, with scattered areas of dense fog
significantly reducing visibility. We went ahead and expanded
the Dense Fog Advisory to include McHenry County as well as the
McLean to Foster counties corridor. This is scheduled for
expiration in about an hour but will have to see how things
look, and cannot rule out a possible expansion with how locked
in place the stratus deck is. No major changes to the gridded
forecast with this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 549 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Low-level stratus and patchy dense fog continue to expand across
parts of northwestern and much of central North Dakota. Areas of
dense fog developed in parts of the northwest and north central,
therefore issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 am CST for
Divide, Williams, Burke, Mountrail, Renville, and Ward counties.
Otherwise, reissued the SPS for patchy dense fog for the rest
of central North Dakota until 10 am CST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

With light winds and snowmelt from yesterday, fog has developed
across parts of the forecast area, especially the north central
and far northwest. While a few observations have shown dense
fog, it's not as widespread as hi-res models indicate so far.
Still, based on model forecast soundings and good radiational
cooling across much of the area, dense fog could further
expand through the early morning hours. Therefore, for now,
issued an SPS until 5 am CT for all counties north and east of
the Missouri River for patchy dense fog. Will reevaluate at 5
am CT to see if any further headlines are needed. Should more
widespread fog develop, it could linger through much of the day
for parts of the state. This would potentially result in
temperatures underperforming where fog persists.

The region remains under northwesterly to zonal flow aloft
through Wednesday night, which will result in mostly dry
conditions and well above average temperatures for most of the
state. The exception is near the Canadian border on Wednesday
where an incoming cold fropa could pass through before peak
heating. These locations would remain closer to average for
this time of year.

A trough will dig into the west CONUS Wednesday, thus putting
the region into southwesterly flow aloft. As the trough
gradually slides eastward and eventually lifts northeast to
finish out the week, low chances for precipitation return to the
area. However, the NBM continues to trend more towards a drier
solution where the best chances are on the CWA peripheries. At
this point in time, precipitation further west is favored to be
mostly snow, while precipitation further east could potentially
become a mix of rain and snow, with a greater than zero chance
for some freezing rain mixed in as well.

Along with the aforementioned cold fropa and troughing, cooler
temperatures are forecast for Thursday and Friday. Though these
are currently favored to range from near average to slightly
above average for this time of year. Well above average
temperatures are then favored again for this weekend before a
cooling trend and more active pattern potentially return to
start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

IFR/LIFR stratus and fog are present across much of
northwestern and central North Dakota. Fog and low level stratus
may continue to expand in coverage as the sun rises before
conditions improve later this morning and afternoon. Some models
do maintain pockets of fog through this afternoon and into the
evening hours, though confidence in anything beyond mid-morning
is low. Winds are expected to remain light and variable through
this morning before gradually taking on a southerly component
this afternoon. In addition, LLWS may begin to impact parts of
northwestern ND late tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NDZ001>003-
009>012-021>023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken