FXUS63 KBIS 041154 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 554 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog, dense at times, until mid-morning for much of northern and eastern North Dakota. - Below average temperatures along the Canadian border today with well above average temperatures along and south of Highway 200. Cooler Thursday and Friday with low chances for snow and possibly a little rain mixed in. - Another modest warmup favored for this weekend, then a cooling trend with increasing chances for precipitation through midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 554 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 Main update was to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory for Foster, Stutsman, Lamoure, and Dickey counties, and to add Ward to the advisory. It does seem like at this point, most dense fog is located along and near the upslope of the Missouri Coteau due to light easterly winds. However, there remain patches of dense fog in other parts of the north central as well. All in all, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 434 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 Areas of fog persist across much of northern and eastern North Dakota, including the James River Valley. Pockets of dense fog remain as well, though is difficult to see on satellite due to an abundance of high clouds. Dense fog is also sporadic in observations and available webcams, though does seem mostly confined to parts of north central and much of eastern ND. With the difficulty in seeing where exactly the low-level stratus/fog deck is, intend on leaving the Dense Fog Advisory as-is for now and re-evaluating over the next few hours. For today, quasi-stationary frontal boundary is essentially draped from west to east across the state, though with a northward skew over western North Dakota. Air to the north of this front is significantly cooler than to the south, which will result in a sharp contrast of highs ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s near the Canadian border to the 50s and low 60s near the ND/SD border. The sharpest gradient is progged to be along/near Highway 200. This frontal boundary will gradually sag southward through tonight, becoming quasi-stationary yet again along the ND/SD border. For Thursday, this will result in mid 20 to upper 30 degree highs for most locations north of I94, and the 40s to low 50s along and south of I94. One important note is that it's always difficult to tell exactly where these quasi-stationary frontal boundaries set up. Any drift slightly north or south could result in actual temperatures coming in moderately higher or lower than what is currently forecast for locations that end up on the "wrong" side. Simultaneously to what is going on at the surface, a trough will begin digging into the west CONUS today and passing through the Northern Plains to end the workweek. NBM PoPs have increased a bit since yesterday with this system, thus bringing widespread 20 to 30 percent chances Thursday evening through Thursday night, and lingering in parts of the southeast on Friday. The current precipitation type is favored to be snow, though a little rain may mix in at times as well. Seasonable temperatures are then on tap for Friday, with another significant warm-up likely for this weekend into Monday. After which, another cooldown is favored for the middle of next week, along with additional precipitation chances, which could begin as soon as Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 554 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 Patchy dense fog and IFR/LIFR stratus is present over parts of northern ND, and has been impacting KMOT for the past few hours. Visibility should improve over the next couple to few hours as winds increase and take on a more northerly component. However, IFR/LIFR ceilings will likely persist over much of the north through the day today before expanding across most of the rest of the area overnight tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for NDZ011>013- 022-023-025. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken