FXUS63 KBIS 060034
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
634 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog will continue across much of central North Dakota
  this evening through tonight.

- Low to medium chances for light freezing drizzle and light
  snow tonight through Friday.

- Mild, dry, and windy for this upcoming weekend, then a cooling
  trend with increasing chances for precipitation next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been reissued for much of central North
Dakota. Our expectation is that visibility should improve from
northwest to southeast through tonight, so have divided the advisory
into 2 segments with different expiration times. Areas from around
Dickinson and New Salem to Bottineau and Rugby have a 9 PM CST
expiration time, while areas to the south and east have the advisory
in effect until 3 AM CST.

The other concern in addition to dense fog through tonight is the
potential for freezing drizzle, which has already been reported
sporadically across central North Dakota this afternoon. Will
evaluate the need for enhanced messaging of freezing drizzle in
time for the next forecast update.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently, split flow aloft developing into the Northern Plains
today with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped from southwest
to northeast across the state. Extensive stratus deck in place
across western and central North Dakota, with partial clearing far
southwest and far south central. Widespread fog persists with the
stratus, with areas of dense fog around the I-94 corridor and a tier
or two of counties north. Earlier extended Dense Fog headlines till
1700 CST, and expect further modifications over the next couple of
hours (removing and/or extending in time again).

Flow aloft transitions to south/southwesterly as the aforementioned
split flow moves into the Great Plains, pushing the frontal boundary
eastward with time tonight. As this occurs, lingering fog will
gradually dissipate west to east tonight into Fri AM in the
wake of the front, maybe lingering a tad in my far southeast.
Embedded waves will trigger light precipitation across the
region, specifically some light snow across the west tonight,
some light freezing rain over northeast ND this evening,
followed by increasing chances for mainly light snow on Friday
south central into eastern North Dakota as the base of the
southern stream part of the trough lifts northeast. Not
expecting much QPF on Friday with less than a tenth of an inch
of liquid and less than an inch of snow forecast. Forcing just
isn't there for our region, with much better lift to our east
on Friday.

Northwest flow Saturday morphs into zonal flow for Sunday ahead of a
strong S/WV moving into the Pacific Northwest and a long wave trough
over Canada developing south. The weekend will be mild and mainly
dry, but also breezy both days. Fire weather concerns become
elevated Saturday and Sunday in far southwest ND, where and
when near-critical fire weather conditions materialize thanks
to low RH around 25 percent and winds gusting up to 35 mph. This
was maintained in the HWO.

Thereafter, we trend colder and much more active for next week as
the aforementioned upper trough dips farther south and multiple
embedded waves move across the region. Already have likely POPs
for Monday night, when models are advertising strong DivQ and
frontogensis collocation over west/central North Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Widespread low stratus and dense fog continue across much of western
and central North Dakota this evening. Visibility should gradually
improve from northwest to southeast through tonight. Low ceilings
are expected to remain in place over much of the area through
tonight before lifting from west to east during the day Friday.
There are also low to medium chances for light snow and/or light
freezing drizzle at most terminals through tonight, continuing
in south central and eastern North Dakota on Friday. Winds will
become northwest and increase to around 10-20 kts later tonight
through Friday, strongest at KJMS and surrounding areas.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
NDZ004-005-012-013-019>021-033-034-042-045.
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for NDZ022-023-025-
035>037-046>048.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Hollan