FXUS66 KOTX 102244 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 344 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High winds Wednesday night into Thursday morning with potential for tree damage and power outages. High profile vehicles need to take caution. - Moderate to heavy mountain snow this week over the Cascade and North Idaho mountain passes. && .SYNOPSIS... Persistent snow will bring several days of winter travel conditions over the mountains this week. We are also monitoring Wednesday through Friday for heavy mountain snow, strong winds, and the potential for light lowland snow accumulations in the northern mountain valleys. Additional moderate snow in the mountains will be possible into this weekend as well. && .DISCUSSION... PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY. HIGH WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... Tonight through Thursday: A strong upper-level jet nosing into the PacNW will deliver a myriad of weather impacts over the next 48 hours. On a more widespread level will be strong/high winds leading to moderate to major wind impacts. On a more local scale will be heavy mountain snow and potential for major impacts to travel over the mountain passes as well as rises on some area rivers. Winds: The main concern for damaging winds will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A strong low pressure system will track through southern BC and into the Canadian Plains. The low will drop several millibars while crossing through southern Canada reaching a minimum pressure near 996 mb. This is a classic weather pattern for strong winds across the Inland NW. Timing is a bit unusual, coming through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, however the pressure gradient is expected to be quite robust (~ 20 mb from Yakima to Lethbridge) and cold air advection with the cold front will likely overcome overnight stability. Models are in good agreement for sustained winds 20-40 mph with some areas (upper rim of the Columbia Basin) flirting with sustained speeds of 40-50 mph. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be common with periods of 50-70 mph during the peak of the winds. Speaking of, the strongest winds are expected early Thursday morning between 2AM and 7AM. On the shoulders of these times, winds will be strong with speeds more typical of wind advisory speeds (ie. 20-30 mph gusting 40-50 mph). The greatest uncertainty will be through the north-south drainages such as Hwy 97 from Wenatchee to Omak, within the Methow Valley, and across several of the mountain valleys within northern WA and North Idaho. Given the southwest to west orientation of the pressure gradients, these valleys may experience more infrequent bursts vs a consistent wind. Winds will be exceptionally strong over the ridgetops. 700mb winds which reside around 9-10k ft are forecast to be 65-85kts, near the top percentile for speeds at this level on this date. Several hi-res models are indicating wind gusts of this magnitude across the highest, most exposed peaks. Winds will remain gusty well into Thursday but the potential for damaging wind gusts will be waning through the late morning and afternoon as the surface low continues to track east of the region. Wind impacts: First and foremost will be potential for tree damage and power outages. High profile vehicles, especially travel Wednesday night, could encounter dangerous cross winds on north- south highways. Would not rule out patchy blowing dust in the Western Columbia Basin around Moses Lake; a dust channel formed on March 8, 2026 resulting in a dust storm warning with weaker winds. Lakes will be choppy and large lakes like Pend Oreille may have wind waves and potential damage to docks. Mountain Snow: The mountains are experiencing light snow showers right now. Snow will pick up overnight into Wednesday morning with the arrival of a moisture laden warm front. Snowfall rates will be around 1"/hour or more at times at Stevens Pass. Snow will continue at varying intensities through Thursday. There may be a period Wednesday night into early Thursday morning when temperatures climb just above freezing either resulting in very heavy wet snow or rain/snow mix. This comes with the period of strongest winds and issuance of the blizzard warning for Stevens Pass. If the warming is stronger than expected and precip type changes to rain (60/40 chance of rain/snow for 4-5 hours) then this could mean less blowing and drifting snow as winds gusts will be approaching 40-50 mph at pass level. Downed trees from heavy wet snow and wet could become the hazard vs blizzard conditions. Cold air will arrive before sunrise Thursday morning which will bring an abrupt shift back to all snow and potential for refreezing of any wet snow/moisture leading to icy conditions. One major uncertainty with the forecast is the amount of slop over snow for the upper reaches of the Cascade river valleys. This includes Leavenworth, Plain, Lake Wenatchee, upper Entiat River, Stehekin, and Methow around Mazama/Winthrop. Projected snow amounts vary from less than an inch to 10 inches with the higher end around Plain and Lake Wenatchee. It is not only a battle of potential warming at the valley floor but also amount of moisture slopping over the crest. Valley Snow: The air mass is cold right now. As the warm front lifts into the region Wednesday morning, Precipitation will start as snow for much of Eastern WA and North Idaho with a transition to rain/snow then rain or end altogether. Highest probabilities for an inch of snow for Wednesday morning (falling during the morning commute) will be over North Idaho around Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and into the valleys of Northeastern WA. Hydrology: We will be closely monitoring rivers and streams in the lower Idaho Panhandle within the Palouse Basin. Rising snow levels and increasing winds will result in snow melt for the lower elevations and periods of rain following Wednesday morning's snow or rain/snow mix. River models are showing Paradise Creek and Palouse River at Potlatch rising near bankfull Thursday-Friday. Stehekin is another basin that is running at bankfull and expected to remain near elevated levels through the weekend. Friday-Tuesday: Mountain snow showers will continue to impact the mountain passes heading into Friday but intensities will be on the downward trend. When amounts are totaled for the Cascade Crest from Wednesday through Friday, we will be talking about feet of new snow (2-4 feet)! For the Idaho Panhandle mountains, amounts will be on the order of 1-2 feet. The pattern begins to buckle on Saturday with upper-level ridging building into the PacNW though subtropical moisture topping the ridge will continue to bring mountain snow and rain/snow. 50% of the ensembles suggest the ridge will be flat enough to allow this atmospheric river to slam into the Cascade Crest. The remaining 50% deflect the deeper moisture northward. This will need to be monitored very closely for warm and wet conditions and rises on area rivers. At this time, Sunday looks to deliver the driest conditions with dry northwest flow before the ridge builds inland. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at each terminal through at least 03Z, which is when mainly snow showers have a 30% chance of impacting GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, and LWS. These snow showers could drop visibilities to 5SM and could bring ceilings down to MVFR conditions. EAT will see showers beginning around 0z. MWH is not expected to see showers and will remain VFR through the forecast period. Precipitation type will be mostly snow except for LWS, which will see a rain/snow mix. These periodic snow showers will last through around 12Z. Additionally, near the end of the forecast period, around 15Z, more showers will move through but precipitation type will be mixed snow and rain due to warming profiles. Chances of precipitation will rise to prevailing for most terminals at the very beginning of next forecast period. Winds will increase to 20-25kts this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in precipitation type with showers moving through. High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 03Z. Low to moderate chance in showers impacting different terminals through 15Z, higher chances for showers near the end of the forecast period. Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds this afternoon. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 31 46 38 48 36 46 / 40 80 80 50 70 80 Coeur d'Alene 29 44 37 46 35 44 / 60 90 100 70 90 90 Pullman 29 44 39 45 37 45 / 60 90 90 90 100 100 Lewiston 34 51 45 53 43 52 / 50 80 90 90 100 90 Colville 27 46 35 50 31 47 / 30 80 90 40 50 70 Sandpoint 29 41 35 44 33 41 / 80 100 100 80 90 90 Kellogg 28 41 36 42 35 42 / 80 100 100 90 100 100 Moses Lake 32 54 41 53 36 55 / 10 30 40 30 40 60 Wenatchee 32 48 40 48 36 47 / 40 80 80 60 60 70 Omak 29 47 36 53 32 48 / 30 70 80 40 50 50 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...High Wind Warning from 8 PM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains- Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley- Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Blizzard Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Western Chelan County. Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday morning for Western Chelan County. Wind Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Thursday for Western Okanogan County. ID...High Wind Warning from 8 PM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Saturday for Central Panhandle Mountains. Wind Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Thursday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$