FZUS61 KBUF 160835 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.1 inch surface low over southern Michigan will track northeastward west of the lake this morning, before pushing northeastward across Quebec through Tuesday. This low will sweep a strong cold front across the lake Monday afternoon, with a 30.4 inch high building across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday. The high will then shift east of the lake Wednesday and reach the East Coast by Wednesday evening. A 30.2 inch high will move into the Great Lakes region Thursday. A 29.8 inch low will move from James Bay to the Canadian Maritimes Friday. This may result in a cold front crossing the Lake through Friday. LOZ062-161500- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... .TODAY...Southeast winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers late this morning. Rain showers likely early this afternoon, then rain and snow showers likely late. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. .TONIGHT...Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west. Snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 8 to 11 feet building to 12 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet. .TUESDAY...West gales to 40 knots diminishing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 12 to 16 feet subsiding to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet. .TUESDAY NIGHT...West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet. .WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. .THURSDAY...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. .FRIDAY...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Friday night. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. $$ LOZ063>065-161500- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River- 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... .TODAY...Southeast gales to 35 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 30 knots this afternoon. A chance of rain showers early. Rain showers early this afternoon, then rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms late. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet. .TONIGHT...West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 40 knot gales. Rain showers, snow showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then snow showers likely after midnight. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times late. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 13 to 17 feet. Waves occasionally around 22 feet. .TUESDAY...West gales to 40 knots diminishing to 35 knots. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 15 to 20 feet subsiding to 12 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 26 feet. .TUESDAY NIGHT...West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet. .WEDNESDAY...West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet. .THURSDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. .FRIDAY...West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Friday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms. $$ LOZ061-161500- MAFOR 1609/ ONTARIO WEST 1/2...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT...11340 11330 11438 11540 11547 11557 11550 11650. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet, then building to 6 to 9 feet, and occasionally around 11 feet today. Waves 8 to 11 feet building to 10 to 15 feet, and occasionally around 19 feet tonight. ONTARIO EAST 1/2...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT...12350 11440 11536 11636 11647 11547 11550. A chance of thunderstorms this evening. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet, and occasionally around 14 feet today. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 12 to 16 feet, and occasionally around 20 feet tonight. $$