FXUS63 KBIS 170931 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 431 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow will pass from west to east across the state today. Snow may change over to freezing rain before ending, especially in the western half of the state this morning. - Temperatures will quickly warm above freezing from west to east today mainly for locations along and west of Highway 281. The rest of the week will feature well above average temperatures with highs frequently in the 50s and 60s, and even some low 70 degree readings possible in the southwest to finish out the workweek. - Mainly dry weather after Tuesday, with low precipitation chances and a slight cooling trend returning for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 A warm frontal boundary will pass from west to east across the state today, which will force a line of precipitation ahead of it. So far, precipitation has begun to develop over the past few hours over western and parts of central ND, though so far the only observations have been in the southwest. For the most part, precipitation has been and is expected to be in the form of snow. However, freezing rain, or perhaps a bit of sleet, is possible on the backside. One thing of interest is the analyzed Max Wet Bulb temperatures on the SPC mesoanalysis page. So far, it has remained mostly 2 degrees or less within the highest radar echoes. Hence why cameras have shown mostly snow fall to this point. To further illustrate this point, most model forecast soundings show no issue in maintaining saturation through the DGZ. Rather, there is a warm nose in the lower levels that may allow frozen hydrometeors to melt before hitting a frozen surface without enough very near surface cold air aloft to refreeze. However, there is enough separation between the wet bulb temperature and air temperature in that warm nose that may help at least limit the duration of any freezing rain. It should be noted that there remains a fair amount of discrepancy between the hi-res models in regard to freezing rain potential. The RAP and ARW produce more impactful freezing rain on the backside (mainly between Hwy 85 and Hwy 83) closer to sunrise and until mid-morning. Meanwhile, the HRRR goes with a lower overall precipitation solution and mostly snow, while the NAM and NAMNest are colder and in the form of mostly snow with sleet on the backside. The FRAM ensemble mean also produces a transitory line of light freezing rain mainly west of Highway 83. In regard to snowfall, 1 to 3 inches remains possible mainly east of Highway 83, with the highest totals generally further east and the lowest further west. Less than an inch is generally anticipated along and west of Highway 83. Gusty winds up to 35 mph could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility, especially in eastern North Dakota, including the James River Valley. Based on the latest radar and model trends, issued another SPS in western ND for snow and freezing rain potential until mid- morning. Issued a second SPS for the rest of the forecast area that relates to the day today. Will continue to monitor should any further headlines be needed, especially if freezing rain becomes more prevalent this morning. Once any precipitation ends today, expect mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures will also rapidly climb with unseasonably warm highs mostly in the low 60s to low 70s by Friday. The exception is far north central and northeastern ND, which are presently forecast to remain mostly in the 40s with a sharp gradient from around 45 to around 60 degrees. A cooling trend with low precipitation chances is then favored this weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are present across the state to start the period. However, a passing warm frontal boundary from west to east will bring a line of snow with a wintry mix, including freezing rain, possible on the backside. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility are possible while precipitation is occurring. Windy conditions are also expected with this frontal passage. However, the western half of the state will rapidly rise to above freezing. The eastern half, on the other hand, will take a bit longer. This could produce impactful blowing snow Tuesday afternoon mainly for the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains and east. One final note is that LLWS is present and will continue to occur tonight through Tuesday morning for much of western ND. Additional pockets may develop mainly over southern and eastern ND Tuesday evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken