FXUS63 KFGF 182018
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
318 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures are forecast this week,
  including well above freezing. While a significant degradation
  in current snowpack is expected, flooding from snowmelt is not
  anticipated at this time.

- There is a medium to high chance for dense fog during the
  evening into morning hours for the next several days. However,
  confidence in location and duration of fog is low.

- A quick moving system this weekend brings a 20% chance for
  advisory level impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

...Synopsis...

Expansive and strong upper ridging is building over the West.
There still remains a stout upper jet over the crest of this
ridge nosing out of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains, southern tier Canada, and Upper
Midwest. Upper troughing still remains over the eastern third of
the CONUS. This synoptic set up places our region generally
under northwest flow aloft, with growing influence of the upper
ridge into our area through the work week.

Our proximity to the stout upper jet will allow two or more
transient, shallow and weak mid/upper waves to traverse southern
MB into eastern ND and northwest/west-central MN this afternoon,
evening, and possibly into Thursday morning. These will bring
quick moving showers of wintry mix. Potential impacts from
wintry mix is limited due to dry air under precipitation
evaporating some precip before it reaches the ground, as well as
the brevity of precip over any particular location.

However, should surface temperatures dip below freezing tonight
with liquid precipitation falling, there may be some areas that
turn slick. This is a low confidence scenario, holding around a
10% chance for advisory-level impacts tonight/early tomorrow
morning.

Into the weekend, the upper ridge flattens into next week. The
flattening ridge will allow more potential for mid/upper level
waves and Pacific-sourced moisture to traverse our region. This
may bring more organized winter precipitation into our area,
possibly bringing advisory-level impacts. More details on this
below.

...Well above average temperatures and implications on flood
potential...

Well above average temperatures are building within the West upper
ridge, including record-setting heat in portions of the
Southwest and Southern Plains. Some of this heat will bleed into
our area this week, but more of a "glancing influence" compared
to other locations firmly entrenched within its grasp. This
will drive well above freezing temperatures into our region,
working at the current snowpack.

There is even a medium chance for exceeding 60 F in some areas,
mainly within southeast ND and west-central MN, Friday and
possibly Saturday.

Temperatures this high will drastically erode the current
snowpack. While this is expected, the current snowpack is not
expected to contain sufficient liquid equivalent to induce
riverine/overland flooding.

This may change as we see exactly how SWE works its way into the
riverine system, possibly allowing more susceptible tributaries
to near minor flood stage late this week into next week.

...Dense fog potential...

With today starting the melt process of our current snowpack,
diurnal cooling at night will harness excess near surface
moisture to develop fog. While confidence is high that there
will be fog within the region, confidence is very low in
where/when dense fog will occur.

With continued well above temperatures continuing to melt the
snowpack through at least Friday, dense fog within the region
can be expected, but with low confidence in location and
duration.

...Weekend winter impact potential...

Ensemble guidance indicates high likelihood in a more organized
but shallow and fast moving hybrid-type wave to traverse the
Dakotas into Minnesota this weekend. While this brings the
potential to bring accumulating snowfall between 1-3 inches
and/or light icing, confidence is low in this occuring within
our area. This is due to spread in ensemble guidance on synoptic
evolution, as well as the likely presence of mesoscale forcing.
Additionally, questions on temperatures either above or below
freezing add addition uncertainty. Ultimately, there is
currently a 20% chance for advisory level impacts.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions will dominate through at least 00Z. After 00Z,
there is an expectation of fog/low stratus to develop within the
region. Currently forecast timing of this trend has been
included into TAFs, although this is a low confidence forecast,
based on uncertainties in where/when fog/low stratus will impact
a TAF site. Winds will overall be on the lighter side, turning
more southerly at around 10kt Thursday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ