FXUS63 KFGF 191140 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 640 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average temperatures are forecast this week, including well above freezing. While a significant degradation in current snowpack is expected, flooding from snowmelt is not anticipated at this time. - There is a medium to high chance for dense fog during the evening into morning hours for the next several days. However, confidence in location and duration of fog is low. - A quick moving system this weekend brings a 20% chance for advisory level impacts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Fog area in the south RRV expanding north-northwest last 2 hours and moving into Fargo area. It may expand further north- northwest thru 14z....but skies are clear above the fog layer so should burn off typical mid morning period. UPDATE Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Main fog area is a small area from Wahpeton ND to Fergus Falls MN then southeast to Willmar MN. Fog within our forecast area is dense in spots but webcams show not widespread. Did SPS for this area for patchy dense fog. Rest of the area light fog is reported by automated weather stations with vsbys 2-5SM, and could see lowering in vsbys yet for a few hours toward sunrise so wouldnt be suprised to see other locally dense fog patches form. I didnt change the key messages. Though for the weekend, chance of winter advisory level impacts look less. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...Synopsis... Expansive and strong upper ridging is building over the West. There still remains a stout upper jet over the crest of this ridge nosing out of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, southern tier Canada, and Upper Midwest. Upper troughing still remains over the eastern third of the CONUS. This synoptic set up places our region generally under northwest flow aloft, with growing influence of the upper ridge into our area through the work week. Our proximity to the stout upper jet will allow two or more transient, shallow and weak mid/upper waves to traverse southern MB into eastern ND and northwest/west-central MN this afternoon, evening, and possibly into Thursday morning. These will bring quick moving showers of wintry mix. Potential impacts from wintry mix is limited due to dry air under precipitation evaporating some precip before it reaches the ground, as well as the brevity of precip over any particular location. However, should surface temperatures dip below freezing tonight with liquid precipitation falling, there may be some areas that turn slick. This is a low confidence scenario, holding around a 10% chance for advisory-level impacts tonight/early tomorrow morning. Into the weekend, the upper ridge flattens into next week. The flattening ridge will allow more potential for mid/upper level waves and Pacific-sourced moisture to traverse our region. This may bring more organized winter precipitation into our area, possibly bringing advisory-level impacts. More details on this below. ...Well above average temperatures and implications on flood potential... Well above average temperatures are building within the West upper ridge, including record-setting heat in portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains. Some of this heat will bleed into our area this week, but more of a "glancing influence" compared to other locations firmly entrenched within its grasp. This will drive well above freezing temperatures into our region, working at the current snowpack. There is even a medium chance for exceeding 60 F in some areas, mainly within southeast ND and west-central MN, Friday and possibly Saturday. Temperatures this high will drastically erode the current snowpack. While this is expected, the current snowpack is not expected to contain sufficient liquid equivalent to induce riverine/overland flooding. This may change as we see exactly how SWE works its way into the riverine system, possibly allowing more susceptible tributaries to near minor flood stage late this week into next week. ...Dense fog potential... With today starting the melt process of our current snowpack, diurnal cooling at night will harness excess near surface moisture to develop fog. While confidence is high that there will be fog within the region, confidence is very low in where/when dense fog will occur. With continued well above temperatures continuing to melt the snowpack through at least Friday, dense fog within the region can be expected, but with low confidence in location and duration. ...Weekend winter impact potential... Ensemble guidance indicates high likelihood in a more organized but shallow and fast moving hybrid-type wave to traverse the Dakotas into Minnesota this weekend. While this brings the potential to bring accumulating snowfall between 1-3 inches and/or light icing, confidence is low in this occuring within our area. This is due to spread in ensemble guidance on synoptic evolution, as well as the likely presence of mesoscale forcing. Additionally, questions on temperatures either above or below freezing add addition uncertainty. Ultimately, there is currently a 20% chance for advisory level impacts. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Fog and low clouds to start the day is the usual issue this time of year and its the same today. The extent of fog overnight was not as much as thought, but there is an expanding area of fog and low clouds (VLIFR) that has been Wahpeton and Fergus Falls moving north-northwest into Fargo-Moorhead at 12z. Initially more of a very low cloud deck but some vsby reductions too under 3SM. Anticipate burn off 14/15z period. Mid clouds otherwise, but this fog area may spread north the next 2 hours before dissipating. I see no reason for it not to dissipate on schedule, but stranger things have happened. South wind will increase into the 10 to 15 kts sustained range today with evidence of a low level jet this evening with an area of 30 kt northwest winds at 2000 ft agl moves through. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...Riddle