FXUS66 KMTR 211014 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 314 AM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 301 AM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 - Much cooler, but still above average temperatures today - Continued cooling for Sunday - Dry weather at least through the end of the month && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 301 AM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 (Today and tonight) The transition from ridging and high pressure to a modest zonal flow is already affecting temperatures. A map of 24 hour temperature change shows most areas around 5 degrees cooler than this time last night, with portions of the Big Sur Coast around 20 degrees cooler as the thermal belt erodes. The marine layer is also redeveloping, leading to some pockets of coastal fog and stratus along the coast of Monterey Co and around Half Moon Bay. The reducing pressure will allow the marine layer to expand through the morning, and hints at a weak southerly surge of stratus along the Big Sur. Areas affected by this push of stratus look to have much cooler temperatures than previous days, but this will be focused on the immediate coast. The rest of the region will still see a notable cooldown today as the pressure reduces and slight onshore flow develops. Highs will range 5 to 15 degrees cooler than previous days, with the low 60s on the coast, 70s for areas slightly more inland, and the 80s for the more interior areas. This will still be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above average for the non-coastal areas, but will be a welcome change of pace from the hazardous, record-breaking heat of the work week. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 301 AM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 (Sunday through Friday) The cooling trend continues into Sunday with highs and lows reducing by a few more degrees. But this is where our pattern looks to hold steady. Our zonal to slight ridging pattern continues through the next work week, keeping highs and lows fairly similar from day to day. Some spots in the Bay Area will see only a 3 degree difference from the warmest day to the coolest day. Chances for coastal drizzle have fizzled out as Wednesday's cold front has pushed farther north in more recent model update. With those chances out of the forecast, it looks like it might not be until the very end of the month before chances for rain return to the forecast. Some of the extended term models still show a developing trough pushing a weak low pressure into the Bay Area into April. But even the most optimistic models only show chances for scattered light rains as this low weakens as it approaches. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 933 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. Moderate confidence on the return of LIFR-IFR conditions to HAF, MRY, and SNS. Low stratus will stick close to the coast tomorrow afternoon once VFR is achieved. Onshore winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period with a low probability (20%) for sub- VFR conditions to return to the terminal tonight. Westerly winds will prevail. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northeasterly flow at MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence on LIFR conditions returning to the terminals tonight. Low stratus will stick to the Pacific Coast tomorrow afternoon. Westerly winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 301 AM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Strong northerly winds will spread across the waters today through tonight. Frequent gale force gusts are expected across the outer waters and in the Point Reyes coastal jet region with isolated gale force gusts expected from Point Reyes to Point Piedras Blancas. Hazardous seas are expected over the weekend as a result. Winds diminish and seas abate early next week then increase again mid week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 849 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026 The following are the UPDATED record high temperatures at the long term sites for March 20th. Location Mar 20 Santa Rosa 91 in 2026 San Rafael 92 in 2026 Kentfield 88 in 2026 Napa 90 in 2026 Richmond 87 in 2026 Livermore 91 in 2026 San Francisco 90 in 2026 SFO Airport 89 in 2026 Redwood City 94 in 2026 Half Moon Bay 75 in 2010 Oakland Museum 91 in 2026 San Jose 88 in 2026 Salinas Airport 94 in 2026 The following are the UPDATED record high temperatures at the long term sites for the entire month of March. Location Santa Rosa 92 March 19, 2026 San Rafael 92 March 20, 2026 Kentfield 91 March 28, 1923 Napa 92 March 17, 1914 Richmond 88 March 18, 2026 Livermore 91 March 20, 2026 San Francisco 90 March 20, 2026 SFO Airport 89 March 20, 2026 Redwood City 94 March 20, 2026 Half Moon Bay 83 March 31, 2000 and March 17, 2004 Oakland Museum 91 March 20, 2026 San Jose 89 March 14, 2015 Salinas Airport 94 March 20, 2026 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea