FXUS63 KBIS 241800
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
100 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are forecast to be above normal today and
  tomorrow. Then temperatures will drop below normal Thursday
  and near normal Friday. Above normal temperatures return this
  weekend.

- Light precipitation chances, falling as mainly rain and snow,
  return tonight through Thursday morning. Isolated thunder is
  possible Wednesday evening.

- Freezing rain is possible tonight into Wednesday morning
  along the International Border and the Turtle Mountains. A
  light glaze is possible.

- Intermittent breezy to windy conditions this week, mainly
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Quiet weather continues across western and central North Dakota
at the time of this mid day update. Scattered weak
reflectivities can be found across portions of the southwest and
central, though high cloud bases and a dry layer above the
surface indicates that little to no precpitation is reaching the
ground. No major adjustments to the forecast were performed with
this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Cloudy skies and mainly quiet weather continue across western
and central North Dakota at the time of this mid morning
update. Patchy fog has developed in the far north central,
mainly in the Turtle Mountains area where melting snowpack
lingers. Fog is expected to lift over the next hour or so as
south southeasterly winds pick up. Other than adjusting fog
grids and some slight adjustments to PoPs later this evening,
the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Quiet weather continues across the region no update is needed at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Today an upper level ridge will continue to amplify a over
Western CONUS keeping the Northern Plains in northwesterly
flow aloft. A weak wave will move through the region this
afternoon giving around 10-15 percent shot of rain across
central North Dakota. Majority of the precipitation will likely
evaporate before touching the ground due to the higher cloud
bases. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to warm
into the 40s and 50s across the state with southwest warming
into the 60s. However, the Turtle Mountains are forecast to sit
in the mid 30s today.

Another system is forecast to move through tonight into
Wednesday morning. This system will move across the state
Wednesday with precipitation chances around 20 south to 40
percent north. Rain is the likely precipitation type across the
southern half of the state while light freezing rain is
possible along the International Border into the Turtle
Mountains. A light glaze is possible making conditions slick.
Precipitation will linger into the early morning hours of
Wednesday. Wednesday is also forecast to be the warmest day of
the week until the weekend as a warm front moves through the
region bringing forth temperatures from 40s in the Turtle
Mountains to the lower 70s in the southwest. Another upper
level wave is forecast to move through the southern half of the
state late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. A rain
snow mix is possible along this cold frontal passage and upper
level system.

The upper level ridge over Western CONUS is forecast to flatten
by Thursday. The aforementioned cold front will move through
the region late Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures for
Thursday. This front will bring windy conditions across the
eastern half of the state, but a majority of the pressure rises
remain over eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.
Temperature are forecast to be below normal ranging from the 20s
north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures will rebound Friday
to near normal with 40s across much of the central and western
half of the state. An upper level ridge is forecast to build
across the Western CONUS this weekend. Thus, bringing back above
normal temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are found at all terminals to begin
the 18Z TAF period. Later this evening into tonight, scattered
precpitation will move from west to east across northern North
Dakota. While mainly falling as rain, some freezing rain is
possible in the far northwest. Have added PROB30 -RA at KXWA and
KMOT with this update. Patchy fog is also possible in the far
north central, with melting snowpack persists, though confidence
is too low to include mentions at any give terminal at this
time. Gusty south winds this afternoon will gradually weaken and
turn westerly overnight through Wednesday morning. Low level
winds shear is expected late tonight over the north central,
including at KMOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Johnson
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson