FXUS63 KFGF 011328 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 828 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The first of two rounds of accumulating snow begins this evening, continuing into Thursday night. General 3-6 inches of accumulation will bring advisory impacts, currently forecast for areas along and south of Highway 200 from Cooperstown to Ada and in north central Minnesota. - Round two of snow moves through Friday into Saturday. This system will be stronger than the first round, bringing 40 percent chance for warning level impacts from accumulating snowfall greater than 6 inches. && UPDATE Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Our first system arriving tonight/Thursday is an upper wave that is currently near Las Vegas Nevada. This 500 mb wave will move quickly northeast and be over central or southern Minnesota by 00z Fri and then north from there into NW Ontario by 12z Fri. Initial moisture out ahead of this wave is generating some light precipitation into SW ND and thru western and central SD at 08z and this is likely to gradually move northeast and give chances for light precipitation into central and southeast ND this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast however to be above freezing, with temps in the mid to late afternoon forecast to be 35-40 in much of SE ND into west central MN. Thus would expect potential for a rain/snow mix. With road temps well above 32F as well and surface temps likely above freezing as well thru this evening any wet snow that would fall is not likely to cause any travel impacts. Precipitation is likely to remain light over the area til later tonight....more toward 12z Thu as the main upper wave approaches. Snowfall will be affected still by daytime heating as daytime temperatures Thursday forecast to be 31-34 degrees and unless snow rates are very high road impacts may remain minimal until we head into Thursday night. The main snow Thursday night will be focused in northeast ND and northwest MN. Overall snow accumulations from this system look to be in the 2-5 inch range for SE ND and much of WC MN, though a bit higher Wadena, Park Rapids. 1-3 or 2-4 inch type snowfall anticipated Grand Forks to Devils Lake and north with most of it Thursday afternoon and evening. Based on timing of impacts starting, did push the start time of the winter wx advisory in SE and parts of WC MN to 00z Thu instead of 18z Wed. Felt this is a better representation of this system for schools, etc in terms of impacts on travel. Did not expand winter wx advisory north at this time. The winter storm watch area in Park Rapids, Wadena was transitioned to advisory to match up with DLH and MPX. Second system will be the stronger one and produce higher snowfall esp in that area from south central into east central ND region and northern MN on the northwest side of the upper low. ECMWF maintains a stronger, bit farther north/west track and has a good trowal feature with heaviest snowfall Fri night into early Saturday. No changes were made to the grids for this system at this time and used data from NBM and WPC. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...Synopsis... Lead shortwave trough is starting to move onto the West Coast and will progress quickly into the Rockies tonight and out into the western Plains by tomorrow. Surface low pressure will eject from the central Rockies tomorrow out into the Upper midwest by Thursday. The next upper low will follow quickly behind the first, with additional accumulating snow Friday into Saturday. Northwesterly flow aloft sets up Sunday into the early part of the work week, with a weak reinforcing shortwave possible Monday. ...Round one of snow Wednesday/Thursday... Fairly vigorous but progressive shortwave will bring good synoptic lift late Wednesday into Thursday. Some signs of 700mb frontogenesis but not super strong. Plenty of moisture wraps around the backside of the system, but not a lot of cold air advection or wind. Temps should see little change from the current air mass, and probabilities are mostly snow with a bit of rain mixing in during the daytime hours at the start of the event. Some of the early precipitation may not even reach the ground due to Probabilities for over six inches of snow are around 50 to 60 percent across a large portion of the southern and southeastern forecast area, but seem to be leaning on the GFS members of the ensemble which have been trending a bit far north recently. Newer versions of the NBM have the 50 percent probability of 6 or more inches confined to our far southeastern corner near Park Rapids and Wadena. Those areas have the best chances for the heavier snow amounts, so put out a watch. Further north and west, snow amounts will generally be in the 2 to 5 inch range, so went with an advisory for now. ...Round two of snow Friday/Saturday... The upper trough coming out into the Plains for the weekend is well wrapped up as it comes arrives in the region, with strong synoptic lift Friday into Friday night. A few low (less than 20 percent) probabilities of mixed precipitation show up briefly Friday in the ensemble, but overall it seems this system will again be mostly snow. Deformation band with fairly high QPF continues through most of the day on Saturday, and it looks like there will be a fairly broad area of at least 2 inches of snow. Probabilities of over 6 inches are 20 percent at this point, so warning level impacts are not out of the question. Given this is the second of two systems will hold off on any headlines for the moment and message two rounds of snow. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 830 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 VFR conditions prevail this morning through early afternoon at all TAF sites. Cloud cover continues to increase this morning, with precip chances gradually increasing through the late afternoon. Light snow will be likely, especially overnight and into Thursday morning. IFR conditions are expected starting around 03Z at KDVL and around 06Z-09Z elsewhere. Winds remain out of the east to northeast at 10-20 knots, with a few gusts to 30 knots developing later this afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ002-003-022-023-027>031-040. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Friday for MNZ006-009-016-017-024-032. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Lynch