FXUS63 KFGF 031224 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 724 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy snow is forecasted this evening into Saturday morning. A wide swath of 6 to 12 inches of snow is expected across much of eastern North Dakota and northwest to west central Minnesota. Far northeastern North Dakota into the northern Red River Valley will see lower snowfall totals. && .UPDATE... Issued at 722 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 No additional changes. Updated aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 602 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Updates done overnght were to coord with MPX to add Grant county MN to winter storm warning as MPX was doing warning for Douglas and Todd. Kept start time 4 pm. Start time for 4 pm was kept for warnings in rest of NW/WC MN. Southeast ND and southern valley warning start time kept at 1 am, but did break out Grand Forks immediate area to change start time 4 pm. Advisory for DVL basin to Cavalier was kept at 4 pm. Coord with BIS on snowfall maps used for DSS and social media and in our grids. The snow Thursday thru early this morning has moved out of NW MN. Deformation zone snow did set up in a narrow zone around TRF to Crookston with 6-9 inches. Overall though not a lot of change to the upcoming system with area of heaviest snow looking to be Fargo to Bemidji where highest chances of 10-12 inches are. Northwest edge of heavy snow is still uncertain due to set up of deformation zone overnight into early Saturday with Grand Forks area on the edge between 4 to 8 inches. UPDATE Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Snowfall rates continue to taper this evening based on radar trends and visibility observations. Snow is expected to continue overnight but conditions should remain roughly the same as snowfall rates become mostly light. As such, the advisory should be allowed to expire in the next 2 hours. UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Snowfall continues across much of the area with a moderate snow deformation band over northwest Minnesota. Webcams indicate accumulation efficiency increasing, so the Winter Weather Advisory was expanded over to include the Roseau to Eastern Polk line of counties, as this band is not likelyh to move much any time soon. An additional 1-4 inches is possible within this band. As this system continues to nudge northeast, conditions will improve from south to north. The Winter Weather Advisory in North Dakota and west-central Minnesota was allowed to expire to reflect this, with continued snow mainly east of the valley in west-central Minnesota. Further expansion of the advisory westward is possible into the Greater Grand Forks area, however accumulation efficiency is heavily limited right now even with the higher nudge in recent CAMs in QPF. This is because temperatures within the valley remain closer to freezing than outside of the valley. We'll be monitoring over the next 1-2 hours to determine if further expansion is necessary, but given temperatures it is more likely than not that we won't need an advisory. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...Synopsis... First shortwave trough currently in the process of lifting from the eastern Dakotas into MN, with the next upper low rotating into the Intermountain West. The main surface low today will pull into IA/WI this evening, and lingering light snow will taper off at that point. The second upper low will start moving into SD tomorrow, with the next surface low deepening and moving into IA. The low will linger over the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday as it wraps up, with continued snow across the area. Conditions will start to quiet down Saturday night and Sunday as northwesterly flow aloft sets up behind the upper low and continues into the first part of next week. Many of the model runs are in pretty good agreement on another trough swinging through the region Wednesday, but differ on timing and exact placement. Not a strong signal for precipitation from the ECMWF EFI due to most solutions showing the surface low tracking along the international border, so the low POPs the NBM gives us seems good. ...Winter weather advisory this afternoon and evening.... Moisture continues to wrap around the backside of the surface low with light snow continuing over northwest and west central MN. CAMs are fairly consistent with the two current areas of precip merging and continuing to wrap into the northern Red River Valley and northwestern MN. At the current time, peak April insolation has kept impacts from snow and even mixed precipitation fairly minimal. However, with temperatures dropping around sunset the impacts could increase. Will keep the winter weather advisory going through the evening hours until the precip tapers off. ...Heavy snow Friday into Saturday... With the main upper low swinging into the region for the end of the week and more moisture available, the setup is primed for moderate to heavy snow. While there are still differences in the ensembles in how far north and west the system tracks, probabilities for over 6 inches of snow are in the 60 to 90 percent range for all but the far northwestern counties as well as our southeastern edge. Some of the blended solutions were trying to drop over 12 to 15 inches of snow in southeastern ND, but given that is over 90th percentile of the NBM and the fact there will be some compaction/melting, this seems overdone. NBM50th percentile and the new NBM 5.0 leaned a bit more in the 6 to 12 inch direction, which seemed more reasonable so went with that for WSW wording and graphics. Winds will pick up Saturday and can't rule out some drifting, but widespread blowing snow does not seem to be likely with this system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 722 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 The low clouds with last nights snow in parts of NE ND and NW MN has left and what is left is mostly an area of VFR clouds in tdhe 5000-8000 ft agl range. The remaining IFR and MVFR cigs in southeast ND will spread northeast thru the day and timing of when say GFK gets back to MVFR is uncertain but was thinking early afternoon. Snow arrives mid to late afternoon/evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ026-027. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-014>016-054. MN...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ001-040. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ002-003-029. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ004-007. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028- 030>032. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux/Riddle DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Riddle