FXUS63 KBIS 090859
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
359 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly warmer, yet still below normal, temperatures across
  the state today. Near normal temperatures Friday then above
  normal temperatures this weekend.

- Widespread 20 to 50 percent precipitation chances later this
  weekend and into early next week. Initially as rain, with a
  few thunderstorms on Sunday, then potentially mixing with snow
  on Monday.

- Breezy winds may be found at times Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Trapped moisture under a weak area of high pressure will bring
some low clouds across the area through this morning. Meanwhile,
a weak upper level wave will push across the southern third of
the state, perhaps bringing some rain and snow showers to areas
along and south of Interstate 94. Limited snow accumulations and
impacts are expected from these showers. Most areas then warm
slightly today, yet remain below seasonable normals. A more
broad area of high pressure then moves in tonight, bringing
clearing skies and lows in the 20s. A switch to southerly flow
will then be found Friday as this high moves eastward. This will
start warming temperatures to near to slightly above normal
along with provide for some breezy southerly winds in the west,
and mainly dry conditions. Increasing clouds and breezy winds
will then be found Friday night, with mild lows in the 30s, and
mainly dry conditions continuing.

Southwest flow aloft will then be found for Saturday, while a
surface low takes shape lee of the northern Rockies. As a result
some breezy southerly winds will be found for central and
eastern areas, while temperatures warm to above normal and
generally in the 70s west to the 50s east. NBM currently on the
lower end of spreads for temperatures, indicating warmer highs
are possible for Saturday with perhaps some upper 70s to lower
80s in the west. There could be some rain showers or perhaps
even some drizzle in the eastern half of the state ahead of the
surface low Saturday. Weak instability could also provide for
some thunderstorms across the east Saturday. Saturday night
could then see more shower activity as the surface low starts to
move into western portions of the state. Weak instability could
bring some isolated thunderstorms during the evening and
overnight hours as well. The lack of shear and more robust
moisture should limit the severe weather threat for Saturday.
Surface low with a mid level wave is then forecast to move
through on Sunday. Warm temperatures will continue for one more
day as this low moves through, with NBM remaining on the lower
end of temperature spreads indicating warmer than forecast
temperatures are again possible for Sunday. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will remain as this low moves through. A cold
front could then follow this low later in the day Sunday through
Sunday night. Timing of this front still remains key as perhaps
some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for
Sunday as indicated by both the CSU-MLP outlooks and the
increased ECMWF EFI Cape/Shear values. Lack of shear and
placement of dry air with the mentioned low could also limit the
severe threat. Thus something to monitor for the upcoming
weekend. The mentioned cold front then stalls on Monday, leaving
widespread chances for rain and snow showers, along with cooler
temperatures to the area. Breezy conditions could also be found
as a result from this front on Monday. Cooler temperatures and
lingering chances for precipitation may linger into Tuesday. NBM
spreads then showing warming temperatures could return mid next
week as clusters indicate southwest flow aloft ahead of the
next troughing pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

MVFR to low VFR ceilings will remain tonight across most TAF
sites. Ceilings improve Thursday morning, with VFR conditions
expected across all sites by Thursday afternoon. A few rain and
snow showers may be found south of Interstate 94 today, with
probability too low to include at any TAF sites. Breezy
northwest winds will become light and variable Thursday morning,
with a steady westerly wind expected Thursday afternoon, then
returning to light and variable Thursday evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin