FXUS63 KEAX 170544
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe storms likely tomorrow afternoon into
  tomorrow evening

  - All hazards possible, including tornadoes, large hail and
    especially the potential for widespread damaging winds

  - Current timing looks to be from 1pm-9pm.

* Much cooler temperatures Saturday with frost possible Saturday
  night. Sensitive vegetation may need to be protected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

One quiet day today before a return to likely an all-modes severe
weather threat tomorrow. Today, the main upper level trough, which
will be our weather maker, will dig through the northern and central
Rockies. In response low amplitude shortwave upper ridging will
build over the area today. In addition, in response to the upper
trough moving into the central/northern Rockies, lee cyclogenesis
will be ongoing today as a surface low deepens over western
Nebraska/northeastern Colorado. This will allow the pressure
gradient to tighten over the local area with modest WAA developing.
Consequently, high temperatures will be well above normal again
today in the low to mid 80s. Tonight, the upper level trough will
shift into the eastern Rockies forcing the surface front into the
central Plains, This will enhance WAA over the area overnight into
tomorrow with lows tonight only falling back into the low to mid
60s. Tomorrow the upper level trough pushes into the
northern/central Plains and this will force the cold front into the
area. Storms are expected to develop across northwestern Missouri
into eastern Kansas during the early afternoon in a highly unstable
environment of 3500-4000J/Kg in addition effective shear will be
between 40-50kts with very steep mid-level lapse rates. This will
allow for all modes of severe weather to be possible. Hi-res models,
suggest initial storm development will occur early afternoon as
discrete storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. Storm mode is expected to transition quickly to a linear
mode with the potential for widespread damaging winds with embedded
tornadoes along the line of storms. Theses storms will progress
eastward through the area during the late afternoon through the
evening. These storms are expected to be progressive which is
expected to limit flooding potential however PWATs are expected to
be in the 1.6-1.8" range which is the 99th percentile. Consequently,
storms will be very efficient which may lead to minor flooding
especially with antecedent conditions being somewhat wet. Showers
are expected to exit the area overnight. CAA is expected behind the
front tonight into tomorrow making for a much cooler day Saturday
with highs in the mid 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Saturday night, a surface ridge of high pressure will move into the
area providing for clear skies and light winds which will allow lows
to fall into the mid 30s to near 40 with frost possible. Sunday,
downslope westerly flow is expected driving high back up into the mid
60s to lower 70s. Sunday night into Monday a warm front will lift
north through the forecast area with WAA pushing highs back into the
70s. Tuesday, a upper level a upper level trough will begin to dig
into the west coast with upstream upper level ridging building over
the eastern Rockies and western Plains. This will leave the local
area under northwest flow aloft but WAA will still drive highs into
the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday, the upper level ridge of high
pressure moves over the local area further pushing highs into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Main concern for the next 24 hours will be the strong to severe
storms affecting the region this afternoon. Reasonably
consistent timing among the models lends to higher than average
confidence regarding storm timing (primarily 20z to 23z), with
strong/erratic gusts, hail, torrential rain, and frequent
lightning all possible if/when storms impact the terminals.
Brief sub-VFR (potentially IFR/LIFR) conditions are also likely
if the strongest storms move directly over the terminals. A
period of rain/showers is expected after the strongest storms
move through, generally through 03z or so Saturday, before
drying out from north to south. Some sub-VFR ceilings may
linger after 00z, but confidence was too low for inclusion in
the TAFs at this point. As for winds, south to southwest winds
10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt or so are expected through the
day, before a cold front moves through and switches winds
quickly to northwest immediately after the strongest storms move
through late this afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...CMS