FXUS63 KEAX 231737 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1237 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 ...18z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms will be possible to likely late this afternoon into late evening as a cold front moves through the region from west to east. - Initial storms later this afternoon across far NW Missouri and NE and eastern KS may pose a threat for relatively discrete storms capable of all severe hazards. - Storms should congeal into a line of thunderstorm by later this evening, with damaging wind gusts becoming the primary hazard. However, cannot rule out a couple brief tornadoes. - Active weather pattern is likely to continue through the weekend and into Monday. Strong to severe storms will be possible on Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night and again on Monday. - Total rainfall accumulations from today through Monday could approach 3 to 4 inches across the region. This could yield some flooding concerns. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Current H5 analysis shows a mid/upper low centered over NE Montana with associated long wave troughing across much of the western CONUS. A 45+ knot H5 jet is analyzed rounding the base of the trough across the Desert Southwest, across the Front Range, and into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a 987 mb surface low is analyzed near the North Dakota/Manitoba border, with a trailing cold extending southward from the northern into the central Plains, linking with a secondary surface low in west central KS, and a dryline extending to the south southwest into the TX Panhandle. A stratus deck remains in place this morning across the western two thirds of the CWA, and some drizzle may be possible later this morning with subtle lift through the moist boundary layer. Continued moisture return has dew points residing in the upper 50s to as high as 60 degrees as of 3 AM, with southerly winds gusting as high as 25 mph. Thanks to the cloud cover, the increased moisture, and the gusty winds, temperatures have not dropped much overnight tonight compared to where they were yesterday afternoon and evening. As we head through the day today, the western trough will progress eastward into the High Plains, with the 50+ knot H5 jet moving further eastward - rounding the base of the trough across New Mexico into the TX Panhandle and curving northward through KS/NE and into the eastern portions of the Northern Plains and western portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, with the cold front further approaching from the west northwest. This will yield increased southwesterly deep layer flow over the CWA by later this afternoon, with this increasing further by late this evening. Strong southerly low level flow should develop out ahead of these features across our CWA this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Continued moisture advection should send dew points into the lower 60s (perhaps even mid 60s across the KC metro and points south and west) by mid afternoon. Cloud cover appears likely to hang around through much of the afternoon hours, which should limit surface heating a bit, with afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s for most locations. 06z CAMs suggests primarily low-level-jet-driven elevated showers and storms may be possible later this morning across NW Missouri, moving to the east through the remainder of the morning hours and into early afternoon. The main show looks to begin around 4 pm, with convective initiation along the cold front across SE Nebraska and to the south southwest toward Salina. Storms may stay discrete or semi discrete for a little bit, but with deep layer flow mostly parallel to the front, storms should grow upscale relatively quickly as the approach our CWA. By around 6 pm, the 6z HRRR shows storms knocking on the door of far NW Missouri, with storms continuing to congeal into a well developed squall line by around 7 pm from NW Missouri to the southwest into eastern portions of WFO Topeka's CWA. These storms should move west northwest to east southeast through the evening hours, making it through the KC metro sometime between 8 pm and 11 pm, and then likely continuing to weaken as they head further east through the remainder of the CWA into late evening and the early overnight period. Now let's talk about hazards. Instability looks to be maximized along and slightly ahead of the front mid to late afternoon across far SE Nebraska/NW Missouri/eastern Kansas, with the 00z HREF suggesting above 2000 J/kg of SB CAPE. This will be paired with around 40 knots of deep layer shear, steep mid level lapse rates, and cyclonically curved hodographs in the low levels. This will support a supercell threat, at least initially, capable of all hazards, including very large hail and a few tornadoes. Areas within our CWA that will have the best chance for this looks to be far NW Missouri/NE Kansas in the 5 to 7 pm time frame, and perhaps further south across the other KS counties in our CWA, although by the time storms reach those locations (Leavenworth/Wyandotte/Johnson/Miami/Linn), storms will likely have grown upscale into a line with only some embedded supercellular features possible. Once the storms have congealed into a well defined line of storms, damaging wind gusts will become the primary hazard, and the 6z HRRR even does suggest the threat for some bowing segments. In addition, 0-3 km bulk shear should be strong enough to support QLCS mesovortices, especially if we are able to get surges or bowing segments within the line. Locally moderate rainfall may be possible, as well, but the system looks progressive enough to limit the threat of flash flooding. The cold front should completely push through the CWA by Friday morning, with Friday afternoon looking dry with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and 10 mph northerly winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Active pattern remains in place into and through the weekend as a compact shortwave is expected to move though the southern stream. As this shortwave trough approaches, storm chances look to return by Saturday evening into Saturday night, primarily for western portions of the region. A more substantial threat arrives Sunday and Sunday night/overnight as the main shortwave and associated surface low moves into the Plains. Prevailing track around KS/OK border area, lifting additional moisture and warm sector through the area Sunday and likely yields some elevated non severe showers/storms as the warm front lifts northward. Surface low approaches Sunday evening and overnight, including continued depictions of area of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and jet streak nosing in yielding 40 to 50 knots of mid/upper flow. This overnight timing is not typically particularly conducive for severe weather, but broad lift with shortwave trough and jet position are of note. Any convection in this environment may yield a large hail or damaging wind threat, especially if it can sustain into Monday daytime as the system continues to push to the east northeast. The most recent SPC Day 4 through 8 outlook has most of the CWA within a 15% probability for severe weather for Sunday into Sunday night, with 15% to 30% probability for severe weather on Monday (30% toward Central Missouri). Another item to keep an eye on would be the potential for flooding, as with rainfall tonight, and then additional chances Saturday night and especially Sunday night into Monday, total rainfall through this time period could approach 3 to 4 inches across a fairly widespread area, with isolated higher amounts possible. By Monday night the synoptic pattern is projected to become more zonal. A shortwave trough approaching from the northwest along with a southward sagging boundary may bring another chance for showers and storms to the area on Wednesday. Temperatures should be relatively close to seasonal normals for Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Messy TAF period, at least the initial half, across the area. Existing MVFR conditions will continue to gradually lift with diurnal heating/mixing, potentially yielding low VFR prior to storms moving through. Confidence in storms is effectively certain, with any lingering uncertainty around exact start/end times. Have kept with prevailing window of time based on most recent hi-res guidance, and used TEMPOs within to signal the more brief heavy rain/low visibility with the primary line of storms. Conditions return VFR post-storms with the surface boundary/northerly winds lagging a couple/few hours behind. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Williams LONG TERM...Williams AVIATION...Curtis