FXUS63 KBIS 251812 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for rain and possibly some wet snow Sunday into Monday. - Mainly dry conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest of the work week. - Below average temperatures continue through the weekend, and likely through much of the upcoming work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Snow showers continue to stream in from Montana in the cyclonic flow. Updated PoPs to include that through the early afternoon, otherwise winds are staying sub-advisory level. UPDATE Issued at 948 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Snow showers continue in the north central, they should be moved into the Devil's Lake basin in the next few hours. UPDATE Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Isolated snow showers have been reluctant to dissipate this morning over northwest and north central North Dakota, so will continue to keep them in the forecast through mid-morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan with high nudging through the Northern Rockies. Upper level analysis shows the Saskatchewan low being stacked, with its influence over the northwestern and north central CONUS. Over our area, most precipitation has ended, though a few light flurries have been noted on some observations. For today, westerly winds will continue over our area as the low hangs out over southern Saskatchewan, becoming a bit gusty over northern/western locations. With that said, we should remain dry. Humidity values look to dip into the mid to upper 20s over a portion of central and western North Dakota. Therefore, there will be an area of near critical fire weather conditions where the higher winds and lower humidities overlap, generally between I-94 and Highway 2, and east of Highway 85. Quiet weather then expected Sunday night as persistant low finally departs to the northeast. In the meantime, a swift moving Pacific trough pushes over the Rockies. On Sunday, surface low spins up and deepens over southeastern Colorado into northeast New Mexico and pushes into the plains, before lifting towards the upper Midwest on Monday. Models are starting to come to a better agreement that precipitation will occur over our area, but still some differences on the amounts. Still, greatest amounts will be over our southeast, lesser towards the northwest. Latest NBM is giving about a 50 to 80 percent chance of seeing a half inch or more of rain through most of the James River Valley, and about a 40 to 70 percent chance through south central ND. Over our northwest, chances for precipitation are lower, but enough cold air is in place for any precipitation to fall as snow. Colder air gradually works to the east overnight Sunday night into Monday morning, with a possible rain to wet snow transition throughout western and north central North Dakota. Behind this system we look to enter a mainly dry pattern through the end of the work week. Temperatures look to hold below average through mid-week, with a possible warm-up to end the week going into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 VFR and breezy, with isolated snow showers in the northwest and north central. Winds will continue west 15 to 30kts through this evening. CIGs will remain VFR and lift. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Smith