FXUS63 KFGF 271122 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 622 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds are expected starting this morning and lasting until early this evening. North winds of 20-30 mph are likely along with gusts ranging from 40-50 mph. Best chances will be in the Red River Valley, especially south of Highway 2. - Widespread rainfall continues today. There is a 70 percent chance for soaking rainfall of 1 inch or more within far southeast North Dakota into Minnesota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 ...Synopsis... A large upper level low over the Canadian Prairies is slowly pulling away to the north and east. This leaves southwesterly flow aloft over the region today into tomorrow. Ongoing cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies this afternoon will be the seed for a powerful system that will bring widespread precipitation tonight into Monday. Thereafter, upper level flow turns northwesterly, putting us in a dry pattern with high temperatures in the 50s everyday through the end of the work week. Shortwave ridging late in the forecast period from Friday into next weekend will bring warmer weather, with widespread high temperatures in the 60s returning. ...Widespread Rainfall Tonight into Monday... A large low pressure system will propagate northeastward from Kansas to Lake Superior over the next 36 hours. As it passes to our south and east, we will find ourselves in a region of steady stratiform precipitation. Rain will start this evening in the south, spreading across all of southeastern ND and MN tonight. There are still a few model differences in how far south/east the low tracks, which will determine where the cut off in heavier rain versus much lighter totals sets up. Rain will end from west to east as the center of low pressure quickly tracks to the north and east Monday afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals will vary from nothing/sprinkles in parts of the Devils Lake Basin to over an inch in our far eastern counties where residence time of the steadiest rain will be longest. Probabilities for an inch or more of rain are highest in west central MN at 70%. Totals will vary most over short distances on the western edge of the heaviest rain, where little shifts in the systems track will make a big difference in the final amount of rain received. This includes places such as Valley City, Grand Forks, Thief River Falls, and Roseau. Additionally, it will be breezy on Monday. The best pressure rises are to our south, but with a 1025 mb high over Saskatchewan and a near 990 mb low in southern MN, the pressure gradient should be enough to drive wind gusts up to 40 mph or so. Future shifts will need to monitor if a wind advisory is needed for any zones Monday morning and afternoon. Right now, based on the weak temperature advection, questionable mixing depth and the bullseye of pressure rises being outside our CWA, decided to hold on issuing any headlines at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 IFR conditions prevail at KBJI this morning with MVFR to VFR conditions elsewhere. Ceilings will be the primary categorical factor today, followed by potential brief visibility reductions during periods of heavier rain. Winds are shifting to the north this morning, with wind speeds expected to increase quickly by mid morning. Gusts of 30 to 40 knots are supported at KGFK and KFAR, with 20 to 30 knot gusts elsewhere. Rain will gradually end from west to east later this afternoon and evening, with winds diminishing very slowly late this evening. Ceilings will improve this afternoon, first at KDVL, KGFK and KFAR, but will take a bit longer for KBJI and KTVF. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...Lynch