FXUS63 KBIS 280527
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest
  of the week.

- Below average temperatures continue through the first part of
  the week, then a warming trend develops.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Quiet weather persists across western and central North Dakota
at the time of this mid night update. Have tweaked sky cover to
account for the latest satellite trends, but overall the
forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 938 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Modified sky cover and hourly weather elements based on latest
obs, otherwise there were no major changes to the forecast for
tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Some lingering very light rain or snow south, and should
dissipate over the next couple of hours. POPs were adjusted for
this. Other main updates were to sky cover based on latest
satellite imagery, and winds based on latest observations and
trends. Allowed the Wind Advisory to expire with peak gusts
below 40 mph now across the James River Valley. Overall quiet
weather expected tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Shortwave trough currently over eastern SD will lift further off
into the Upper Midwest tonight, with the next major shortwave
coming around the Hudson Bay low moving into the Rockies. Light
radar returns continue over southern portions of the forecast
area, but should clear out as the eastern shortwave continues to
pull away. Fairly tight pressure gradient will continue over the
southern James River Valley into the early evening before we
lose the good mixing and the system pulls further east, so will
keep the wind advisory going. Should start to see clouds clear
out for a period overnight as high pressure builds into the
Western Plains. Tomorrow, the Rockies shortwave moves out into
the Plains, although the bulk of the vorticity and precipitation
looks like it will be to our south. However, several CAMs show
some shower activity across eastern MT and encroaching into
far western ND. The model soundings have a pretty good dry layer
at the surface so uncertain how much will actually reach the
ground, but included some very low POPs in far northwestern ND
for tomorrow afternoon.

Northwesterly flow aloft with a few weak embedded shortwaves
continues through the end of the week and into the weekend. A
few of these minor ripples could bring some low precip chances,
but they are unlikely to be high QPF producers under northwest
flow. ECMWF EFI is not showing much of a wet signal, and NBM
probabilities of over a tenth of an inch of rain are under 20
percent. Temperatures should moderate back up to near or above
seasonal averages later this week as 500mb heights rise. Some of
the ensemble members showing another stronger trough digging in
by day 7 that could bring some colder temps again, but several
other clusters keep higher heights over the Plains, so
confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals
throughout the 06Z TAF period. Light winds are expected to
remain out of the north northwest through Tuesday afternoon,
before becoming very light and turning to the east northeast
through Tuesday evening and the end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/NH
DISCUSSION...WFO FGF
AVIATION...Adam