FXUS63 KFGF 020908
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
408 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this
  afternoon in southeastern North Dakota.

- Critical fire weather conditions could develop in northeastern
  North Dakota Sunday afternoon, and a Fire Weather Watch is in
  effect. Near critical conditions in southeastern North Dakota.

- Rain chances increasing Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Main impacts this weekend look to be fire weather, so adjusted
key messages accordingly. Low pressure over southern Canada will
deepen today as it drops down into the Red River Valley, with
some southwesterly winds at 15 to 25 mph ahead of the low. These
winds along with RH values dropping to near 25 percent will
bring near critical fire conditions to southeastern ND this
afternoon. A few rain showers could also move through according
to the CAMs, but inverted V soundings would indicate most of
them will evaporate before reaching the ground. Gusty winds from
the virga showers seems to be the main impacts. The first low
pressure system moves off to the south tonight, but another
stronger low moving through Manitoba will bring even stronger
westerly winds tomorrow afternoon. RH values will again be near
25 percent or even lower, and with winds near advisory criteria,
there is about a 50 percent chance for Red Flag conditions in
the Devils Lake basin. Will put out a Fire Weather Watch for
that area tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...Synopsis...

North to northwest flow continues through the forecast period, with
several shortwaves traversing the flow into the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Rain chances will be minimal through Sunday, with
only a scattered shower or two possible in response to a very weak
shortwave. Temperatures gradually warm today through Sunday,
bringing afternoon highs into the 60s for most areas this weekend. A
slightly stronger shortwave and upper low will move across
northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota heading into
Monday; however, the latest ensemble trends continue to show better
rain chances retreating further northward. At this time, there is a
50 percent chance for 0.10" of rain along the International Border
near Lake of the Woods, with lower chances further south and west.

...Fire Weather Concerns...

Minimum RH values will hover in the 25-35 percent range today
through Sunday. Warmer temperatures return for the the weekend as
afternoon highs climb into the 60s across eastern North Dakota and
west central and northwest Minnesota. Winds are expected to remain
generally light today and Saturday, with an increase in winds for
Sunday. These slightly higher winds will bring a chance for near
critical fire weather Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front
brings rain chances back into the area on Monday, mainly for
northwest Minnesota and parts of the northern Red River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. Surface low pressure developing
into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will result in
increasing southerly winds (7-11kt) before sunrise. Winds
eventually become southwesterly and increase ahead of a cold
front Saturday that will first arrive at KDVL in the morning and
sweep through the region by late afternoon Saturday shifting
winds to the the west, then north-northwest by the evening. A
few locations in northeast ND may observe gusts around 30kt as
this front moves through the region during the afternoon period
(chances at KGFK are below 30%).

This front will also bring a period of scattered high based
(very light) rain showers that are not likely to reach the
surface (virga), with bases near 10kft agl during the afternoon.
Chances for impacts at ND TAF sites are generally 20-30%.
Greatest impacts would be sprinkles and locally higher/erratic
gusts 30kt+ where these showers track.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR