FXUS66 KLOX 042114 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 214 PM PDT Mon May 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS...04/201 PM. Cloudy and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday, with increasing chances of mostly light rain. Warming and drying to follow Wednesday through the next weekend, with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees in some areas by Friday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...04/209 PM. An upper level low, currently centered just south of Monterey, will slowly move to the southeast and into Arizona by late Tuesday. As this colder airmass moves overhead, it will continue to destabilize the atmosphere. This will make showers possible, but without much mositure (precipitable water readings around 0.8 inches), most shower activity will be limited in terms of coverage and intensity. As such, much of the area will likely not see any precipitation between now and Tuesday, but some will and that is especially true in the mountains (btw, snow levels are 6,000+ feet). High resolution models continue to show increased activity forming tonight over the LA/Orange County border, and a cell or two looks rather healthy. So considering all of this, rain impacts will overall be minimal to none, but there is a low risk of isolated minor road flooding and traffic issues. The potential for anything more significant beyond that is not zero, but pretty close to zero. Breezier than usual onshore winds are also likely through Tuesday over most areas. The Antelope Valley looks the windiest and the low-end Wind Advisory remains in effect, but might need to be cancelled early as winds so far have been a step under Advisory levels. With the cold airmass in place, temperatures will remain 10 to 20 degrees below normal through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s common. Big changes coming Wednesday through Thursday. Low pressure aloft will be quickly replaced with building high pressure, as 500 millibar heights go from 560 decameters on Tuesday to 580 decameters on Thursday. Meanwhile, onshore pressure gradients will weaken with light offshore flow forming Thursday morning. This has all the ingredients for a sharp warm up, with high temperatures likely jumping 15 to 20 degrees from Tuesday to Thursday when mid 70s to mid 80s will be common. The marine inversion should reestablish itself around Thursday to a more traditional height, and there are some signals of a weak coastal eddy. Coastal low clouds and fog will likely be in the area as a result, which will moderate the warming near the coast. Very unsure however exact what areas will be in the May Gray. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...04/213 PM. High confidence in high pressure aloft continuing its building over the region into early next week. At this point, 500 millibar heights peak Monday or Tuesday of next week around 588 decameters. At the very least, this means that mountains and deserts will continue to warm Friday through Tuesday, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday or Monday all but a certainty at this point. The coastal and valley areas however will be tricky. There is a fair spread in the onshore and north-to-south gradients, between moderate onshore and moderate offshore. The offshore scenario would bring high 90s to the coastal valleys, while the onshore scenario would keep highs in the high 80s. Climatology would favor the onshore scenario. Our official forecast is fairly conservative and pretty much going down the middle between the two scenarios, which seems like a good way to go this far out. && .AVIATION...04/1838Z. At 1817Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to 7000 ft. Moderate confidence in TAFs. Wind speeds/gusts may be off by 5 kt at times during peak winds at all sites. There is a 20-30 percent chc -SHRA along with a 5 percent chc of a -TSRA from 22Z-04Z. Brief MVFR cigs will be possible at anytime through the period. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30 percent chance of -SHRA 22Z-04Z. High confidence that any east wind component with be AOB 6kts. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10-20 percent chance of -SHRA 22Z-04Z. && .MARINE...04/211 PM. Across the nearshore waters inside the SoCal Bight, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west winds are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening, followed by a chance (30-40% chance) Wednesday and Thursday nights, mainly in the Santa Barbara Channel. Nearshore along the Central Coast there is a 40-60% chance for SCA NW winds Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with a 30-40% chance of SCA conds Thursday afternoon and night. For the outer waters, SCA NW winds are likely (50-70% chance) on Tuesday for the waters near Point Conception to the northern Channel Islands, possibly extending south to San Nicolas island. Winds will increase again from the NW Wednesday night (for PZZ676) into Thursday for the remaining outer zones through Thursday night. Stronger winds will be possible Friday into the weekend. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RK AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...Ciliberti/RS SYNOPSIS...RK weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox