FXUS63 KFGF 071921 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 221 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions across west central and northwestern Minnesota this afternoon with relative humidity values approaching 25%. - At least near critical fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend with a 20 percent chance for critical fire weather conditions on Friday. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft continues through tonight and tomorrow, with the next shortwave digging down Friday night into Saturday. The northwesterly flow aloft returns for Sunday and Monday before another shortwave pushes through the Northern Plains Monday night and Tuesday. After this shortwave, ensemble members are all over the place with some clusters pushing ridging into the Plains and other clusters keeping us in northwesterly flow. Predictability is low although the ECMWF EFI does show our colder temperatures signal transitioning over to warmer than average by days 6 and 7. ...This afternoon's near critical fire weather... Temperatures finally not quite as cool as they have been this week and most spots have risen into the 50s. With dew points in the teens to low 20s, relative humidity values have dropped into the 20 to 30 percent range for the most part. Winds are mostly under 15 mph although a few spots are gusting up to around 20 mph. SPS for near critical fire weather conditions continues to seem good, and the low RH values will continue into this evening before temperatures start to drop. ...Tomorrow and beyond fire weather concerns... Similar RH values are expected for tomorrow afternoon, and there will be more of a pressure gradient as a surface trough moves through. While winds look higher than today, there is only around 30 kts to mix down and not much in the way of pressure rises. The 50th percentile of NBM has some 25 mph sustained winds in east central ND, but may be due to the NBM's bias in that area. The HREF joint probability for winds over 25 mph and RH values under 25 percent doesn't have much. Dropping the winds threshold down to 20 mph gives us some low chances for critical fire weather conditions on the MN side, around 20 percent. Definitely could see critical to near critical fire conditions for tomorrow afternoon, but not confident enough to go with a watch at this point. Still breezy into Saturday, but slightly cooler temps should bring higher RH values and there will be a low chance for showers. Less wind and similar RH values for Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 VFR conditions with cumulus over MN airports forming in the 6000-8000 ft range and more scattered to few coverage further west. More mid and high clouds moving into the area tonight and tomorrow morning, but conditions will remain VFR. Winds that are gusting up to 20 kts at a few of the TAF sites will become light and variable again this evening. Eventually winds will pick up again out of the southwest then northwest by the end of the period, with gusts up to 25 kts possible. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR