ACUS11 KWNS 102034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102034
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...in the northeast TX Panhandle...northwest OK...and
south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 102034Z - 102230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail are
possible in the short-term across the northeast Texas Panhandle. The
severe threat should increase this evening, with a corridor of
supercell clustering towards south-central Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Rather high-based and isolated storm development has
occurred across the TX Panhandle over the past couple hours.
Convection should further increase and eventually consolidate over
the northeast Panhandle into northwest OK, in advance of the
northern lobe of the broader shortwave trough over the southern High
Plains. A strengthening low-level jet into early evening should
support a northward advancement of progressively richer low-level
moisture across much of the body of OK. This should support an
uptick in convective intensity as storms impinge on this increasing
moisture, evolving along the quasi-stationary
southwest/northeast-oriented front into south-central KS.

The initial severe threat should remain mainly isolated and
marginal. But the expected strengthening of storms during the
evening could support increasing peak intensities, along with a
confined corridor of severe storms into south-central KS.

..Grams/Gleason.. 03/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35950102 36490035 37599845 37859750 37739707 36799742
            36399836 35949951 35660035 35680085 35950102

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN