FXUS65 KMSO 301857
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1257 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Significant warming and drying today and Friday, medium-high
   probabilities for valley temperatures reaching 70 degrees or
   warmer on Friday.

-  Slow-moving showers and isolated thunderstorms return this
   weekend, initially focused north on Saturday before shifting
   southward for Sunday.


Through Friday: Northerly flow this afternoon will generate a few light,
isolated showers. However, the primary weather message is a
drying and warming trend into Friday as a brief high-pressure
ridge builds over the region. High temperatures are forecast to
reach approximately 10 degrees above seasonal normals by Friday,
providing pleasant conditions with light winds and mostly sunny
skies.

Weekend through Early Next Week: The Northern Rockies will be situated in a
"squeeze" between low pressure systems: a persistent Hudson Bay Low to the
northeast and a slow-moving upper-level low off the California coast that
will gradually migrate inland. This setup will tighten the pressure
gradient, likely resulting in a shift to northeasterly flow and daily
breezes. Despite the breeze, temperatures are expected to remain
10-15 degrees above normal across much of the region.

Confidence remains lower regarding the exact coverage of precipitation.
Currently, shower and thunderstorm activity appears limited, primarily
focusing on the terrain of Northwest Montana and the Continental
Divide on Saturday, shifting southward on Sunday. Given continued
variability among ensemble clusters, those with outdoor plans
should monitor the forecast for updates. By early next week, the
persistent northeast gradient may become strong enough to produce
choppy conditions on area lakes.

Latter Half of Next Week: Ensemble clusters (approx. 70%) favor a
brief re- amplification of the ridge by Wednesday. This will
likely be followed by a transition to more unsettled weather,
bringing a return of shower chances while unseasonably warm
temperatures persist.


&&

.AVIATION...A ridge of high pressure will be building over the
region today bringing fair flying conditions for the next 24
hours. This ridge could allow for a very low risk for development
of patchy valley fog that could have an impact to KGPI and KMSO
during the early morning hours.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$