FXUS63 KFGF 102022 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow between 1 to 3 inches near the South Dakota border into west-central Minnesota tonight. - A swath of accumulating snow of 2 or more inches as well as gusty winds of at least 50 mph will impact the area Thursday evening into early Friday morning. While there is a 20% chance for blizzard conditions, there remains large uncertainty in severity and location of impacts. - Another system moves through the Northern Plains this weekend, bringing accumulating snow. This may impact our region; however, uncertainty remains high in location of associated impacts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 ...Synopsis... Strong upper jet out of the Pacific Northwest will continue to promote quasi-zonal and northwest flow while supplying waves of energy and moisture into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the week. While there are several embedded, weaker waves aloft today through Wednesday, a more vigorous wave moves into the Dakotas and Minnesota late Thursday into Friday. This will bring gusty winds and precipitation, including accumulating snow. Gusty winds and accumulating snow will impact our area, of which may be significant for a relatively brief period of time. While confidence is high in at least some impacts from gusty winds and snow, there is still large uncertainty in severity and location of impacts. Entering into the weekend, upper ridging builds in the Northern Pacific. This will promote troughing into the Plains, effectively developing a system liable to bring accumulating snow into the Northern Plains. Temperatures are forecast to remain near average through the week, with highs near or above freezing, with lows below freezing. However, with systems on the horizon, the track of these systems will influence relatively brief periods of above and/or below average temperatures. ...Light snow tonight... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will allow one or more transient, low amplitude waves aloft over eastern SD into central MN. As this occurs, frontogenesis aloft will allow unorganized bands of light snow to develop in these areas late this afternoon into tonight. Latest high resolution guidance has trended slightly upward in snow accumulations, now into the 1 to 3 inch range for locations near the South Dakota border into west- central Minnesota. This may bring minor travel impacts to these areas, mainly from potentially snow covered roads, including the late afternoon commute. ...Strong system late Thursday into early Friday... All ensemble and deterministic guidance brings a vigorous, progressive clipper-like wave into the Dakotas and Minnesota on the nose of a stout upper jet out of the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, a well developed, strong surface low pressure potentially lower than 990mb moves generally northwest to southeast across the region. With majority of guidance indicating this system to be strong and deep as it quickly moves through, a strong pressure gradient is likely to drive gusty winds of at least 50 mph, especially on the northern and western flanks of the low's center. Additionally, majority of guidance brings strong forcing aloft with transient mesoscale forcing via strong frontogenesis and instability. Strong forcing combines with Pacific-source moisture to deposit accumulating snow, and some light rain given temperatures above freezing in the warm/dry sector near its southern flank. As of now, guidance brings a swath of 2 to 6 inches with this system. Relatively highest chance for at least 2 inches of snow resides in northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota, along and north of US Highway 2 corridor. While gusty winds and accumulating snow are likely to occur, the location of these remains in question. Ensemble guidance still varies markedly in track of the center of low pressure, which will dictate swath of highest snow and winds. There is a wide range of scenarios that may occur within our area. Lowest impact scenario looks like gusty winds near 50 mph with 2 or less inches of snow, bringing only minor travel impacts from gusty winds and patchy blowing snow. Highest impact scenario includes blizzard conditions, and will need an overlap of at 2 or more inches of snow combined with sustained winds in the 35-45 mph, with potentially concurrent snow falling during period of high winds also bringing blizzard conditions. As of now, there is a 20% chance for blizzard conditions within northeast North Dakota into Red River Valley. There is also a scenario where high winds around 60 mph without snow may bring its own set of wind-related impacts, mainly to high profile vehicles and sporadic power outages (relatively best chance in southeast North Dakota). All impact scenarios are relatively brief in time thanks to the progressive movement of this system, starting as early as late Thursday afternoon, and lasting as late as sunrise Friday. ...Potential winter impacts this weekend... Majority of ensemble guidance indicates a deepening trough and associated deepening system into the Plains and Midwest this weekend. This combined with relatively strong upper jet and continued Pacific-sourced moisture will induce snow as the system deepens, including into our area. While there is a scenario that brings large swath of accumulating snow of at least 3 inches into the Dakotas and Minnesota, there is large spread in evolution of where and when this upper trough deepens. Thus, confidence remains very low in our local potential for accumulating snow. For now, will continue to monitor. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 MVFR ceilings are forecast at KBJI and KDVL within the TAF period; elsewhere, VFR conditions are forecast. At KBJI, confidence is medium to high in MVFR ceilings through 06Z, with confidence in lowered ceilings lingering beyond 06Z degraded thereafter. At KDVL, confidence in lowered ceilings is medium to low. Relatively best chance for MVFR ceilings is after 06Z. Winds will be light through the TAF period, generally variable around 5kt before 06Z, turning 7-10kt out of the north after 06Z. There is a low chance for fog and associated visibility reductions within northwest Minnesota between 00Z-12Z. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce this in TAFs. Sites like KTVF would be most liable to see this potential impact. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ