FXUS63 KBIS 310610
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
110 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain with snow chances south and east tonight, with minimal
  accumulations forecast.

- Temperatures turn colder starting tomorrow, remaining below
  normal through the rest of the week (normal highs around 50F
  with forecast highs in the 30s to around 40).

- Dry conditions Tuesday, followed by chances (30 to 70%) for
  snow Wednesday and Thursday (light snow accumulations possible
  south central and southeast).

- Increasing probabilities for widespread accumulating snow
  (possibly moderate to heavy) Thursday night through Saturday
  across the region. Low confidence regarding the placement of
  heavier precipitation and amounts remain at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The light rain and snow continues moving west to east across
southern and eastern portions of the state. Winds also continue
to be breezy along the frontal boundary in the west and central.


UPDATE
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Frontal boundary continues to drop through the area with winds
turning northwest and becoming a bit gusty. Occasional
precipitation continues over the area, but so far this has
remained rather light. Going forecast remains in good shape.

UPDATE
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

For early evening update, main change was to pull medium chances
for precipitation into the upper James River Valley in line
with latest radar depiction. Otherwise, going forecast remains
in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Currently, strong quasi-zonal flow aloft with the entrance
region of a departing upper level jet over the Northern Plains
and a mid level S/WV trough across Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Secondary cold front situated roughly along the International
border. Sharp contrast in afternoon temperatures, ranging from
the upper 20s north to lower 50s south. Will relook afternoon
temperatures before finalizing the forecast, likely adjusting
cooler across the south as we're struggling to warm.

The combination of right entrance region jet forcing and lead mid
level impulses moving east ahead of the mid level trough will
result in decent chances (up to 75%) for light rain this
afternoon through the evening as this forcing interacts with
the southward moving cold front. A mix/changeover to snow is
expected in the wake of the cold front on the north side of the
precipitation. Only expecting less than a tenth of an inch of
moisture, and little if any snow accumulating. Post-frontal
winds also ramp up out of the northwest, with gusts to 30kts
possible.

Much cooler on Tuesday in the wake of the front, with highs
from the upper 20s north to around 40 south, along with
continued blustery conditions with gusty northwest winds
persisting during the day.

A hybrid southwest/split flow aloft develops for the middle of
the week, with a S/WV trough moving into the southwest CONUS and
a S/WV ridge over the Northern Rockies by early Wed. Chances
for snow (mainly south) late Tuesday night through early
Thursday under this flow pattern, along with continued below
normal high temperatures both Wed and Thu. Base of the
aforementioned southwest trough lifts east and north on
Thursday, how far north being the big question with GEFS and EC
ensembles not in sync yet. Some travel impacts may arise during
the day Thursday, depending how far north this wave and its
associated snow spread (EC farther north, GEFS farther south).

Deep cutoff upper low will move onshore over the Pacific
Northwest Wed night into Thursday, then develops east
into/across the Rockies Thu night and into the Great Plains
Friday/Fri night. Latest NBM trended higher with QPF and snow
amounts for this system over the Dakotas late Thu night through
Sat AM. Latest 48 hour probabilities for 6" of snow is at
40-60%, 30-50% for 8", and 17-25% for 12". Will continue to
mention in the HWO, and will continue to monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR to MVFR across the area tonight with light rain and snow
moving through the south and east. Northwest winds will continue
to gust 15 to 25 knots through the night. Patchy fog is also
possible in the far north central tonight. CIGs will improve
through Tuesday with winds calming.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Smith