FXUS63 KBIS 311136
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
636 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures turn colder starting today, remaining below
  normal through the rest of the week (normal highs around 50F)
  with forecast highs in the 30s to around 40.

- Dry conditions today, followed by snow likely in the south
  (55 to 70%) Wednesday and Thursday, with chances (25 to 50%)
  elsewhere.

- Increasing confidence for widespread accumulating snow
  (possibly moderate to heavy) Thursday night through Saturday
  across the region. Lower confidence regarding the placement of
  heavier precipitation and amounts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Surface high pressure moving into the state from the northwest
has pushed the light rain and snow out of the forecast area. The
low clouds this morning should break up leading to a period of
sunshine later this afternoon.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Currently light rain and snow bands are sitting over southern
and eastern North Dakota, with surface high pressure moving into
the northwest. Fog is also forming in and around the Turtle
Mountains.

Today will be much cooler and start the trend of that through
the rest of the week. Highs will range from the 20s north, to
40s south. Northwest winds this morning will be breezy, but in
the afternoon will calm and turn northeast under the high
pressure.

The mid-week snow system could bring shovelable snow across
central and southern North Dakota. A low pressure will form off
the Rocky mountains and move east through Nebraska. Inverted
troughs off that low will impact the Dakotas and northern
Minnesota early Tuesday morning through Thursday morning. The
lifting from divergent Q-vectors exists over most of the state
but a little weak. Lapse rates during this event will also be
very weak. The saving grace might be frontogenesis (fgen) at
the 700mb level across southern North Dakota. The surface fgen
is forecast to stay in South Dakota. Another limiting factor
could be this surface high pressure currently moving into the
state. It will likely limit the snow to southern ND, as we see
all too well. As of now, the current NBM snowfall forecast is 1
to 4 inches from central to southeastern North Dakota (more snow
south). We may need a Winter Weather Advisory in the James
River Valley if this forecast continues. Winds will also be
breezy but with snow ratios very low, the wet snow will be
harder to blow around.

While this is going on a large upper level low forms and moves
into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday. There will be a short
break in the snow between Wednesday's low exiting and this
incoming low. Snow looks to start again almost state-wide
Thursday evening. Models have the upper low digging into South
Dakota by Friday evening. The surface low appears to be farther
south, so there should be much less of a concern for a strong
storm. The 00z models agree on the upper level low placement,
with the GEFS being slightly more progressive. Yesterday the 06z
models had them disagreeing on the placement so it might be a
back and forth thing until we get closer. All that to say there
is still lots of uncertainty with this later week system for
timing and placement. The clusters also are in disagreement.
Either way it looks like we will get precip somewhere in the
state, the NBM has likely (70%) chances already. Snow will
probably taper off Saturday, leaving continued colder
temperatures through the weekend under northwest flow.

Looking into early next week, temperatures look to warm back
closer to normal (50). NBM temperatures spreads are large of
course, but the trend is there.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MVFR mixed with VFR this morning with breezy northwest winds
around 25 kts. Today CIGs will lift and become SCT, as well as
winds calming and turning to the northeast. Wednesday morning
there is a chance of light snow in the west and southwest,
covered with a PROB30 for now at KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith