FXUS63 KBIS 101514 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 914 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for a light wintry mix across parts of western North Dakota this morning. - Patchy fog across far southwest North Dakota this morning. - Above normal temperatures favored for most areas this week, with highs generally in the 30s and 40s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Only some minor tweaks for sky cover this morning in the west. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Generally quiet weather across the forecast area this morning, with nighttime satellite imagery revealing the bulk of low stratus has exited the forecast area, with the exception of the far eastern James River Valley. Areas of fog have expanded into southwest North Dakota, seen on a few different NDDOT travel cameras. Did tweak the fog area and extended it a few hours, and also adjusted sky cover with this update. Radar returns in Montana have significantly diminished but kept in previous low POPs for now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Early this morning, the synoptic pattern across the CONUS was a bit disorganized, with flow over North Dakota turning more northwesterly. At the surface, a cold front was moving through the southern part of the state, with breezy northwest winds across central and eastern North Dakota. Widespread low stratus was also present across the eastern half of the state. Upstream in eastern Montana, there appears to be some sort of impulse riding over a weak boundary, with light radar returns across northeast Montana. There have been reports of a couple hundreths of liquid (unknown p-type) making it to the surface in this general area, so we did add in some low POPs to parts of western North Dakota through mid-morning. There are some questions about the depth of the very near surface saturated layer and if cloud heights will be too high the further east you go, but these upstream obs gave enough confidence to at least add a mention to the gridded forecast. Based on surface temps and forecast soundings felt a wintry mix was appropriate, but would expect little impact, if any, from this morning precipitation. We are also watching for fog development in southwest North Dakota this morning, with satellite imagery at least showing cloud cover in the far corner, although high-res guidance has backed off on visibility reductions and this could be more of a low stratus vs. fog scenario based on forecast soundings in this area. Baker, MT did recently drop to one half mile visibility. The weather today, and for the rest of the work week, looks quite benign as we end up on the milder side of persistent cyclonic flow paired with a diffuse surface pattern. Highs today will range from the upper 20s in the Turtle Mountains area to the lower 40s southwest, with a slight warming trend expected through Friday. NBM temperature percentiles show little spread signaling high confidence in continued above average temperatures, with low to medium chances for southern North Dakota to return to the 50 degrees F threshold on Friday. We are currently carrying a dry forecast through Friday after this morning, although northwest flow is notorious for low predictability shortwaves bringing light precipitation events. This weekend into next week we start to see some changes to the synoptic pattern, with ensembles showing some variety of split flow across the CONUS, with zonal flow dominating the northern stream. This is favored to keep temperatures still relatively steady from this week, before we look further into next week and start to see hints of a more significant pattern switch. Cluster analysis reveals ensemble members are in good agreement on troughing over the western CONUS, leading to southwest flow across the Northern Plains. This is a favorable pattern for more cooler and more active weather across the region, mirrored in blended POPs increasing to start next work week, and a similar indication in CIPs Extended Analogs and CPC outlooks. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 MVFR ceilings are exiting the James River Valley to start the TAF period, with a few pockets of lower ceilings across the north central. Additionally, there is some patchy fog across far southwest North Dakota, but not expecting it to reach KDIK. Some mid level clouds will be passing through the forecast area with light westerly winds through today, shifting to southerly tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones