FXUS63 KEAX 150828 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog, reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less expected this morning across northern Missouri and northeast Kansas - Temperatures warm tomorrow, continue to warm through the first half of next week - Elevated fire weather concerns possible Tuesday. - Next chance for precipitation Tuesday night (15-20%) && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Early this morning, stratus is covering most of the forecast area with the exception of the northern Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas. It is here where the skies have cleared that fog has developed. This fog is expected to be dense through mid-morning with visibilities reduced to a quarter mile or less and as such as dense fog advisory has been issued. Conditions are expected to improve by late morning as a surface ridge of high pressure moves into the area. Height rises are expected over the region as well as upper level ridging builds over the eastern Rockies and Plains in response to a upper level trough digging into the west coast. This will aid in highs rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s despite weak mixing. By Monday, the surface ridge will slide east of the area and WAA will get underway. In addition, the upper level ridge will move over the area which will aid in driving highs into the mid 60s to near 70. Tuesday, aforementioned west coast trought, now in the form of a much weaker shortwave will move from the eastern Rockies into the western Plains with an attendant cold front developing over the western Plains. This will act to tighten the pressure gradient across the local area with strong WAA driving highs to near record levels in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With well above normal temperatures and strong and gusty southerly winds an elevated fire danger may be possible Tuesday although relative humidity values and moist fuels will keep concerns well below critical thresholds. Tuesday night, the upper level shortwave will move into the central Plains and Upper Midwest forcing a Pacific front through the area. Moisture with this front will be meager however, strong forcing may be enough to produce a few showers (15-20% chance). Behind the front Wednesday, strong downsloping western flow is expected which will again produce another day of well above (20-25 degrees) normal temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Thursday another upper level shortwave will move through the central Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing another cold front through the area. Moisture will again be lacking but the chance (15-30%) for a few showers will be possible. This front will also usher in cooler temperatures. Thursday will be a day of transition as highs across northwest Missouri where the front will pass earlier in the day will only reach the low to mid 50s but will range to near 70 across the southeastern CWA. Continued CAA behind the front Thursday night into Friday will return highs to near normal on Friday with highs ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Ceilings have risen over the past few hours allowing all TAF sites to reach MVFR conditions. Sky coverage will begin to scatter out over the next couple of hours which may allow a period of VFR conditions to be observed early this morning. However, fog is expected to develop across northwestern MO and northeastern KS early this morning, which will reduce visibility at KSTJ likely resulting in VLIFR conditions. However, the southward extent of the fog is still uncertain, so confidence is not high enough to include FG at KMCI and KMKC at this point. KIXD should not see any fog impacts. Once the fog concerns dissipate, VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the TAF period with light winds shifting from northerly to southwesterly. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>006- 011>015-020. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-102. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Carothers