FXUS63 KBIS 171630 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1030 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of freezing rain are possible this evening as rain transitions into snow. The highest potential for a light glaze of ice is found north of Highway 2. - The greatest snow accumulations today through Wednesday night of 3 to 8 inches is expected along and north of Highway 2, with locally higher amounts along the International Border. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected north of Interstate 94. - Strong winds are expected across portions of the northwest this morning through this afternoon, then across the southwest this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Periods of blowing and drifting snow are possible. - Another round of accumulating snow is expected across portions of southwest and south central North Dakota late Wednesday through late Thursday. - A rapid drop from above normal high temperatures Today down to near to below normal high temperatures Wednesday through the weekend is expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 The biggest change this update was the addition of a Wind Advisory in the southeast, and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Interstate counties east of the Missouri River tonight. The new NBM was loaded into the forecast, and does not capture the possible southern shift in the snow that the other HI-RES models have. Currently there are light returns on radar in the west and north. With cloud bases around 12k feet, little to none of it is reaching the ground yet. UPDATE Issued at 550 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Low stratus and patchy fog can be found over portions of northwestern and north central North Dakota this morning. Visibilities are broadly above 3SM across this area, though the odd NDDOT camera or weather station has show visibilities as low as 1SM at times. An isolated report or two of freezing drizzle associated with this stratus has also come in, though these have been fairly brief with how quickly it's been moving to the north. Will continue to monitor precpitation reports and visibilities this morning. Overall, the forecast remains on track this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 A negatively tilted upper level trough is progged to cut across the northern Plains today through Wednesday. A surface low pressure system associated with this wave is anticipated to develop over southern Montana/northern Wyoming later this morning, and is similarly lofted eastward through Wednesday. With this features, a plethora of winter weather and wind impacts are expected across western and central North Dakota over the next few days. We will cover each hazard type individually. WINDS: -This morning and afternoon: Strong east to southeast winds are expected to develop ahead of the winter storm this morning through this afternoon across portions of Northwestern North Dakota. Aloft, a strong 850mb jet with speeds from 50 to 60 knots over northern North Dakota this morning, and slowly make its way eastward this afternoon. At the surface, moderate to high lapse rates from 7.5 to 8 C/KM are progged to linger across the west. With these two features overlapping in the northwest this morning and afternoon, strong winds with speeds around 30 MPH and gusts as high as 50 MPH are expected. These strong winds should diminish through the late afternoon and evening as the 850mb is displaced to the east. A Wind Advisory has thus been issued for far northwestern North Dakota from 12Z this morning through 00Z this evening. -This evening through Wednesday afternoon: another 850mb jet is expected to develop across portions of southern North Dakota and linger overnight through Wednesday afternoon. With the strong CAA and pressure rises also expected to move into southwestern North Dakota this afternoon, strong west to northwest winds are anticipated to develop. Wind speeds again are expected to peak around 30 MPH, gusting as high as 50 MPH. Winds will remain elevated overnight through Wednesday morning, then begin to diminish Wednesday afternoon as the inciting 850mb exits to the southeast of the forecast area. Thus, a second Wind Advisory is in effect over portions of southwestern North Dakota this evening through Wednesday afternoon. We wouldn't be surprised to see a peak gust approaching 55 MPH over portions of the far southwest some time late tonight into early Wednesday morning, though these would be comparably isolated and short lived. PRECIPITATION AND WINTER WEATHER: Ongoing moisture advection into northeastern North Dakota this morning will promote the development of low level stratus ahead of the winter storm. With moderate to strong 925 to 850mb FG forcing across the forecast area this morning and afternoon expected to overlap this low stratus, periods of very light precpitation in the form of drizzle and possibly freezing drizzle are not out of the question. That being said, the saturated layer remains fairly shallow through the morning period, meaning that this precpitation should be fairly isolated if it occurs at all. Chances for precpitation will start to increase by the late afternoon, early evening period as the low pressure system starts to move into southeastern Minnesota/northwestern North Dakota. With the unseasonably warm temperatures lingering across the forecast area, with highs this afternoon forecast from the mid 30s north to the lower 50s southwest, precpitation is expected to mainly fall as rain this afternoon across western and central North Dakota. With the aforementioned moderate to strong FG forcing and decent Q vector convergence progged to develop over North Dakota this afternoon, periods of more moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of central North Dakota into the James River Valley. Wouldn't be overly surprised to see a few rumbles of thunder over portions of the southwest and central North Dakota this afternoon as well, especially as the main wave begins to move in, with CAMs continuing to advertise modest amounts of CAPE from 300-500J/KG and bulk shear values as high as 35 knots. -By the late afternoon/early evening, a cold front associated with the low pressure system is progged to start moving into western North Dakota. As this front moves to the southeast, a conversion from mainly rain to mainly snow is anticipated this evening through tonight. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings through this period indicates that periods of freezing rain are possible across portions of northwest and north central North Dakota. While this should be fairly brief at any given location, a light glaze of ice is not out of the question (10 to 30 percent chance). Ensemble models remain fairly well split on how quickly the front is expected to move across the forecast area, which has ramifications for overall snow accumulation. A quicker front, and thus a quicker transition to all snow, would allow for totals to approach the top end of the expected snowfall range, mainly as rates are enhanced by the lingering FG forcing over the forecast area. A slower front will allow for more of the precpitation to fall as rain, and thus help limit snowfall totals down toward the lower end of the expected snowfall range. Overall snow totals for this initial system are expected to remain highest north of Highway 2, where wrap around snow will linger tonight through Wednesday evening, ranging from 3 to 8 inches overall. Totals south of here are more variable, from 0 to 1 inches south of Interstate 94, and from 1 to 3 inches between I94 and Hwy 200. Regarding hazards, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all counties along and north of Highway 2 this evening through Wednesday evening, mainly where the highest snowfall rates and greatest snowfall totals are found, as well as where a light glaze of ice and periods of blowing snow cannot be ruled out. Along Highway 200, where snow totals are lower, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect this evening through Wednesday evening. Periods of blowing and drifting snow cannot be ruled out here either, especially as gusty winds redevelop across central North Dakota Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wrap around precpitation lingering across northern North Dakota is expected to exit to the east through Wednesday evening. Around this same time, another winter weather system is expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies in Colorado. Chances for precipitation are expected to increase across the southwest as this system dives into the southern Great Plains which, with the much cooler highs from the lower 20s west to upper 30s southeast on Wednesday, is expected to mainly fall as snow. While the southwest is really only skimmed by this system Wednesday night through late Thursday night, another inch or two of accumulating snow is not out of the question. With gusty northwest winds also expected to linger Thursday afternoon, we will have to monitor the potential for more blowing or drifting snow, though the strongest winds are anticipated to be displaced further to the east. Beyond this time period, a chaotic flow pattern is expected to develop across the northern Plains. Wouldn't be overly surprised to see another round of light snow through this period, especially across central North Dakota Saturday through early Sunday. Ensemble members remain fairly split on the potential for precpitation during this period, with 50% remaining dry and the other 50% advertising light precpitation. The NBM itself errs toward the drier side of things, limiting western and central North Dakota to very low (sub 10%) chances for precpitation this weekend. In either scenario, near to below normal high temperatures in the single digits north to lower 20s south are expected Friday through this weekend. Long term model guidance and CIPS analogues lean toward a slight warming trend heading into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1030 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to spread across the forecast area later through the afternoon, along with chances for rain. A general transition from rain to snow is expected late this afternoon through this evening. Periods of reduced visibility due to heavy snow and blowing snow are also possible, especially across north central North Dakota. IFR ceilings and visibility is possible when and where heavy snow and blowing snow develops. Snowfall will linger across northwestern and central North Dakota overnight. Strong east to southeast winds are expected across northwestern North Dakota up to 30 knots and gusts as high as 45 knots are anticipated. Winds across the northwest will diminish through the afternoon, turning northwesterly as cold front moves in across the west. In the southwest, another period of strong west to northwest winds is anticipated this evening through the end of the TAF period. Speeds up to 30 knots and gust as high as 45 knots are expected. Another round of LLWS is possible across the west this evening, though confidence is too low to include mentions at any given TAF site at this time. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ001>005-009>013. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Wednesday night for NDZ017>023-025. Wind Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ031>034-040>045. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ035>037. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM CST Wednesday for NDZ046>048- 050-051. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam