FXUS65 KMSO 170840
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
140 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- A strong cold front will produce gusty winds, bursts of heavy
  snow and falling temperatures across western Montana and north
  central Idaho this morning.

- Accumulating snow across north-central Idaho, light snow in
  western Montana Wednesday.

- Expect some of the coldest temperatures of the season Wednesday
  through Saturday mornings, with lows in the teens potentially
  stressing newborn livestock.

A cold front is moving across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana
this morning and will continue through the rest of western Montana. This
front will bring wind gusts up to 35 mph, a fast change from rain to snow
at almost all elevations, and dropping temperatures. Briefly intense snow
showers with snowfall rates over 1 inch per hour are possible as the front
passes. Because many areas have been relatively warm, snow will initially
melt on roads before it begins to pile up. Expect changing road conditions;
surfaces may be just wet in some spots but could turn to ice or snow
rapidly around shady corners. Sudden, blinding snow showers (snow squalls)
remain a concern for this morning, mainly between 4 a.m. and 9 a.m. MST.
The most likely area for sudden drops in visibility and heavy snow bursts
is east of Missoula along Interstate 90 through Butte.

A much colder body of air will settle over the region behind the front,
followed by a second blast of even colder air moving south from Canada into
northwest Montana tonight and Wednesday morning. Current data suggests the
most extreme cold will stay east of the Continental Divide, but a shallow
layer of this cold air is expected to move into western Montana valleys.
This will bring some of the coldest temperatures of the winter so far.
Thursday morning looks to be the coldest, with single-digit lows in
Kalispell and areas east of Highway 93. Most of western Montana will see
lows in the low teens, while central Idaho will remain milder with lows in
the mid-20s. These cold mornings will persist through Saturday, warming
only slightly toward the weekend. The combination of cold and scattered
snow showers may be stressful for newborn livestock.

Steady rising air will develop over central Idaho on Wednesday, causing
light to moderate snow on Wednesday and Thursday. Expect a most likely
range of 2 to 6 inches of new snow in the mountains of central Idaho.
Valley locations will generally receive 1 to 3 inches.

Overall, we have shifted into a more active pattern with frequent storms
and cooler temperatures. This trend is expected to last through the end of
February. Traditional computer models keep this cool, active pattern going
into early March, while new artificial intelligence models suggest a return
to normal weather to start the month.

&&

.AVIATION...A vigorous cold front will sweep across the terminals this
morning, bringing a rapid wind shift and a transition from rain to snow at
all elevations. Snow squalls are the primary concern through 17/1600Z,
particularly for routes east of KMSO toward KBTM, where snowfall rates
exceeding 1 inch per hour may produce sudden LIFR/VLIFR conditions. While
initial precipitation may melt on warm pavement, rapid cooling will favor
accumulation and potential icing on taxiways and runways by mid-
morning. While snow will be slower to taper off across northwest
Montana, the remainder of the region will be breezy and trending
toward VFR conditions in the afternoon. Behind this morning's cold
front, a secondary Arctic push from Canada will arrive tonight.
Expect strengthening NE winds at KGPI after 18/0600Z, with gusts
peaking near 30 kts by 18/1400Z and persistent MVFR/IFR ceilings
across the region.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark Fork Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     Butte/Blackfoot Region...Flathead/Mission Valleys...
     Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West
     Glacier Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Lower
     Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville
     Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$