FXUS65 KTFX 182104 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 204 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow continues to progress northeastward through the afternoon and evening, slowly ending from southwest to northeast tonight. - Cold temperatures and wind chills linger over the plains tonight. - Ridging moves in this weekend, promoting a largely dry period through midday Monday. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Broad upper troughing across the west with several embedded disturbances will keep the weather on the active side to close out the week. One of these embedded disturbances is moving overhead now, resulting in some minor impacts due to snow across portions of Central and Southwest Montana. This disturbance exits eastward/northeastward tonight. That said, with broad upper troughing remaining in place, pockets of light snow may linger through the night and into Thursday, primarily near terrain. The next system slides across the Northern Rockies Friday and into Friday night, bringing a round of minor mainly mountain snow to Central and Southwest Montana. All the while, cold temperatures through the remainder of today and tonight begin trending a bit less cold to toward the weekend. Upper level ridging then builds in briefly for the weekend. Although this will promote dry conditions, the lack of winy respectable west to southwest wind over the plains will keep temperatures on the cooler side of average. Heading into next week flow aloft gains a stronger zonal component, which will begin aiding in eroding the cooler surface airmass. That said, there looks to be at least one disturbance that moves through the more zonal pattern next week. Confidence is highest in the Monday evening through Tuesday timeframe as being on the active side. Ensembles and related guidance do hint at the opportunity for marginal instability to develop over this timeframe across SOuthwest Montana. Should this more aggressive solution verify, there would be at least some risk for convective snow showers over this timeframe, mainly along/south of I-90. Regardless of risk for convective snow showers, the disturbance also looks to bring a more stratiform type of precipitation to the region. After Tuesday ensemble averages favor a northwesterly flow aloft, though confidence in anything more specific than that is low. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Snow through Thursday morning: HREF probability matched mean guidance increased snow a bit in Judith Basin county and vicinity, largely sitting in the 2-4" range. Given this looks to fall over a relatively short timeframe through the overnight, I opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory to describe forecast impacts. Small portions of southeastern Cascade county near Belt and far southwest Blaine county and vicinity look to see similar snow amounts, but given these impacts look localized in these counties, I opted to hold off from an advisory. Precipitation early next week: There are some timing uncertainties for the system Monday evening into Tuesday, which will play into how much convective enhancement there will be to precipitation. At this time the only areas with a greater than 50% probability for 3" snow are along the Continental Divide and over a few ranges of Central and Southwest Montana. Should this wave be favorably timed with daytime heating, probabilities for impactful snow showers would increase along and south of I-90. This timing will bear monitoring. -AM && .AVIATION... 18/18Z TAF Period Predominately light to moderate snow will overspend much of Southwest through North Central Montana between 18/18z and 19/00z, with snow then lingering through 06-12z Thursday. IFR/MVFR conditions are largely expected over the next 24 hours; however, temporary LIFR conditions are likely at times beneath heavier bursts of snow at the KBZN, KEKS, KHLN, and KLWT terminals, especially between 18/21z to 19/03z. Mountains will be obscured through the 1818/1918 TAF period. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF -8 10 -5 27 / 60 20 0 10 CTB -17 4 -9 23 / 20 0 0 0 HLN -6 21 3 31 / 30 10 10 30 BZN -2 23 1 30 / 60 20 10 20 WYS -2 20 -14 22 / 70 40 20 30 DLN 7 28 6 32 / 50 20 10 10 HVR -9 6 -8 20 / 60 30 0 0 LWT -7 13 -2 28 / 80 40 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory until noon MST Thursday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-Hill County-Northern Blaine County-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Thursday for Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MST Thursday for Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls