FXUS63 KFGF 210514
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1114 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20 percent chance for winter impacts Tuesday into
  Wednesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low continues to move further northward this afternoon and
evening, slowly weakening before being swept east by a trough this
weekend. High pressure will settle into the Northern Plains by
Saturday evening, then drift slowly eastward on Sunday and Monday.
Look for much colder temperatures this weekend, with highs in the
single digits to low teens and morning low temps in the single
digits either side of zero. A reinforcing surge of cold air arrives
late Sunday into Monday, with lows on Monday morning in the teens
below zero for most areas. Temps rebound Monday afternoon into
Tuesday as winds increase out of the south ahead of an upper trough.
This will bring our next potential for winter weather on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A band of snow will accompany this clipper like system;
however, due to a large degree of ensemble variance, there is little
confidence in where the heaviest snow is expected. Further into next
week, there will be very little support for precipitation as low
level westerlies bring much warmer temperatures into the area for
Thursday and Friday.

...Potential for Snow Next Week...

Looking into Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak ridge builds into eastern
Montana and western North Dakota ahead of an upper low that is
expected to track along the baroclinic zone. An elongated area of
FGen will form along the temperature gradient, bringing a chance for
light to moderate snow where the band forms. Ensembles show very
little in the way of spatial agreement, with a large number of
possible solutions with regards to snowfall potential. The one thing
that is consistent, however, is that where the band forms, there
will be the potential for winter impacts and accumulating snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the first 12 hours of the TAF
period with a low chance for flurries briefly bringing
visibilities down to MVFR (10% chance). Additional low cloud
decks are expected to develop tomorrow morning into the
afternoon, with the greatest coverages over northwest Minnesota.
It is more likely than not that MVFR conditions will also arise
at GFK, and a 40% chance for MVFR conditions at FAR. This all
hinges on cloud coverage which has a lower predictability
horizon with this thanks to relatively lower relative humidities
filtering in from the Canadian north. Guidance has recovery
after 00z tomorrow, although with the high uncertainty regarding
the trajectory of this upper low over Manitoba, it can't be
ruled out for longer duration stratus. Winds will remain fairly
uniform with northwesterly winds around 10-15 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux