FXUS66 KLOX 210256
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
656 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

.SYNOPSIS...20/258 AM.

A drying trend will continue to establish today, but a cold air
mass will grip the area today. After a chilly start to the day on
Saturday, a warming trend will take shape through the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal into Saturday but then warm
above normal on Sunday. Chances for rain next week continue to
fade with an upper-level trough likely taking a track into
northern California.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...20/206 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, ridge will gradually build through
the weekend, peaking in strength on Monday (582-586 DM heights).
At the surface, offshore flow will gradually strengthen, peaking
on Monday.

Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant issues are
expected. Dry conditions will prevail with skies varying from
mostly clear to partly cloudy as high clouds drift overhead.
However, with building H5 heights and increasing offshore flow,
no marine layer stratus issues are expected.

As for winds, northeasterly winds will gradually increase in
coverage and strength through the period. However, the upper
level support is minimal, so any offshore winds should remain
below advisory levels through Monday.

As for temperatures, the combination of building upper level ridge
and increasing offshore surface gradients will bring a welcome
warming trend to the area. By Sunday, most areas will be 2-6
degrees above normal then about 6-12 degrees above normal on
Monday. As for overnight lows, tonight will be another chilly
night, but should be a degree or two warmer than this morning. So,
at this time, will not issue any Frost/Freeze products, but future
shift may need to reevaluate that possibilty.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...20/207 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, ridge weakens a bit on Tuesday and
Wednesday, but will rebound on Thursday and Friday. Near the
surface, weak onshore flow will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday, but
offshore flow will begin to return Thursday and Friday.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, models continue to shift a weak
atmospheric river further northward. So, the rain chances for the
area are very limited. At this time, there is a chance for light
rain across San Luis Obispo county (amounts around 0.10 inches or
less), but dry conditions are likely elsewhere. This matches up
well with the latest ensembles which only have a few members
indicating any measurable rain south of Point Conception. With the
weak onshore flow and slight weakening of the upper ridge,
temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler across most areas.

For Thursday and Friday, dry conditions are expected. Temperatures
will gradually warm, due to the building ridge and weak offshore
flow. There will be some offshore winds, but they look to be on
the weak side.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0255Z.

At 0011Z at KLAX, no inversion and no marine layer were present.

High confidence in TAFs with VFR conditions and light winds
through the period. 10% chance for VLIFR conds at KPRB after 10Z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...20/1242 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas are
expected through this evening. For Saturday, there is a 20-30%
chance of SCA level southerly winds, highest across PZZ670.
Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels
Sunday and Monday, then NW winds are expected to increase Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
conditions remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...BL
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox