FXUS63 KFGF 020518
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1118 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures through next week.

- There is the potential for a more active period towards the
  end of next week. Predictability in impacts is currently low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...Synopsis...

Southerly winds prevail this afternoon and evening as shortwave H5
ridging develops along northwest flow. A much warmer air mass moves
into the Northern Plains heading into Monday, with highs climbing
well into the 30s to mid 40s from north to south.

Slightly cooler temps are in store for Tuesday as a weak trough
traverses the flow and the ridge flattens. Warmer temps return on
Wednesday as low level flow turns westerly, allowing afternoon
temperatures to reach well into the 50s across parts of southeast
North Dakota and the southern Red River Valley. Temps will be
slightly cooler for areas north of Highway 200, generally in the mid
30s to low 40s.

A range of potential forecast solutions begins to emerge from
Thursday onward, as zonal flow turns slightly southwest. There is a
large amount of ensemble disagreement surrounding how amplified the
southwest flow actually becomes, with some members hanging onto
zonal flow well into the weekend. In either case, there is a signal
in a pattern change and a more active period; however, details
will largely depend on several factors that are yet to be
resolved in synoptic models. At this time, overall
predictability is very low, with a general trend towards
potential impacts somewhere in the Northern Plains and/or Upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR through the period with some uncertainty after sunset
tomorrow night with a low chance for some MVFR ceilings. LLWS
ongoing for much of the region out the SW at 30-40kts lasting
through 12z. occasional gusts have been observed at GFK and FAR
despite a noted inversion with these unlikely to be frequent
they do remain possible through the LLWS period. Winds typically
southerly at 10-15kts but occasional gusts of 25-30kts will
likely remain the next several hours. That means most of the
time a 10-15kt wind with no gusts 70-80% of time but 20-30% of
the time gusts in excess of 25kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT