FXUS63 KBIS 181445 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 945 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average temperatures through the rest of the week, with highs in the 40s and 50s in the Turtle Mountains area, and 50s to 70s across the rest of western and central North Dakota. - Fog may develop tonight, especially for areas east of Highway 83. - Mostly dry conditions through the rest of the workweek, with low chances for precipitation returning over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Shallow warm front will continue lifting across the forecast area today, with very mild temperatures this afternoon, especially for areas south and west of the Missouri River. Only notable weather concern right now is still low visibility in Bottineau County from fog, otherwise quiet weather continues through today. No big changes with this update. UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Expanded patchy fog this morning further south into the far eastern James River Valley. Observations show a pretty sharp thermal gradient from the upper teens to low 30s from east to west along the north/south borders of the James River and Cheyenne River Valleys. Fog is mostly on the cold side of this, though also remains in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains where it too remains cooler. Patchy fog may linger through the morning near the Turtle Mountains, but should dissipate elsewhere by mid-morning. In addition, also added patchy fog tonight for most locations east of Highway 83. A loss of much of the remaining snowpack and light winds are favorable for this fog development. However, low-level stratus could help inhibit fog formation as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Patchy fog has developed in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains and should dissipate by mid to late morning. Otherwise, generally quiet weather and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the remainder of the workweek as a west CONUS ridge gradually slides eastward. Despite generally dry conditions, weak embedded shortwave energy could bring a little light rain to the Turtle Mountains area later this afternoon or evening. Westerly winds, breezy mainly in western ND, are expected to prevail today and Thursday as a couple weak surface lows pass from west to east across southern Canada. These downslope winds will help produce unseasonably warm temperatures with highs today in the 50s and 60 for most locations, and highs on Thursday ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s. The main exception is in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains where things will remain cooler and in the 40s to low 50s. For Friday, winds will take on a more northwesterly component with breezy conditions across most of the forecast area, though highs will remain similar to Thursday. For this weekend, a trough looks to break down the ridge which brings low chances for light rain mixed with snow Friday night through Saturday night. More noteworthy at this time is the return to more seasonable temperatures on Sunday. Near average to seasonably warm temperatures are then favored to start the next workweek. While the NBM keeps Sunday through Tuesday dry, there are hints that low mentionable PoPs will likely enter the forecast at some point. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Patchy fog remains present in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains, as well as the far eastern James River Valley, which has caused Jamestown to briefly tank as low as 1/2 SM this morning. As warmer air slides eastward early this morning, KJMS should become and remain VFR through the day today. This is likely to occur within the next hour or two. Once any fog dissipates, all of western through central ND should become VFR through the day today before more widespread fog potentially develops tonight, though MVFR/IFR stratus may inhibit it to some extent. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Jones DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken