FXUS63 KFGF 241847
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
147 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sharp temperature gradients remain in place through mid-week,
  with highs ranging from 30s (north) to 50s and 60s (south).

- Chances for some mixed precipitation Wednesday into Thursday.
  Probability of advisory level impacts is 10 percent.

- Drying fuels this week may intermittently support low end
  fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

West to northwesterly flow aloft will continue into the mid-week
period, with periodic amplifications as shortwaves move through
southern Canada. One such shortwave will come through Wednesday
night into Thursday, and finally push the frontal boundary that
has been lingering over the CWA south and bring temps in most
areas down below normal. West to northwest flow continues into
the weekend and the start of the coming work week, with heights
rising back up and a return to above average temperatures in
most of the forecast area. The ensembles are starting to show
signs of flow becoming more southwesterly by the end of the
period, but predictability in the details is low at this point.

...Sharp temperature gradient into Wednesday...

Surface frontal boundary pushing to near the international
border this afternoon, with southeasterly winds across most of
the forecast area. Still around a 20 degree a temperature
difference between Langdon and Fergus Falls thanks to snow
cover. The gradient will be even sharper tomorrow as the cooler
air in Canada starts to sink back to the south, and surface
winds south of the boundary become more southwesterly to
westerly. A few spots near the SD border could get close to 70
tomorrow afternoon, while counties along the Canadian border
remain in the 30s. Frontal boundary should push south finally
Wednesday night into Thursday as a trough digs into Manitoba and
Ontario.

...Mixed precipitation Wednesday into Thursday...

Some of the ensemble members bring some very light precipitation
north of the frontal boundary tomorrow morning as a weak lead
shortwave moves through. Some of the CAMs however, are less
impressive and do not have much reaching the ground. Better
precipitation chances expected Wednesday night into Thursday as
the front moves down, with some frontogenesis possible. HREF
probabilities of precipitation type shows some mix of rain,
freezing rain, and snow, and this seems reasonable given model
soundings. However, at this point the best probabilities for the
higher QPF are for rain, and while the probabilistic WSSI does
show a 50-50 shot for some winter precipitation, the chances for
advisory level impacts are still very low, around 10 percent.


...Fire weather concerns...

Dew points have dropped to near 20 percent near the Red Lakes,
although fortunately the winds have been light and from the
southeast. Southwesterly winds tomorrow will pick up at 10 to 15
mph in parts of southeastern ND, but dew points will be a bit
higher and afternoon RH values are expected to stay in the upper
30s to 40 percent. Cooler and some moisture on Thursday, but
Friday and into the weekend some locations could drop to 30
percent or lower. Will continue to keep an eye on fire weather
as fuels dry out.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions now and throughout the period with mid and high
clouds and any fog or stratus that develops expected to stay
north of the TAF sites. Winds will be the main concern, shifting
to the southeast this afternoon then, to the northwest by the
end of the period with some light and variable possible in
between. Wind speeds will stay under 15 kts, and should be under
10 kts after this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR