FXUS62 KILM 240641 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 241 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 06Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Breezy conditions and much drier, cooler air are expected behind last night's cold front. 2) Above normal temperatures are expected ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. A few thunderstorms are also possible with the cold frontal passage Friday night, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy conditions and much drier, cooler air are expected behind last night's cold front. Deep mixing behind last night's cold front brought bone dry air down from aloft with dewpoints briefly falling into the teens and lower 20s across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region. Wind gusts up to 48 mph also occurred in Lumberton. While cold advection will continue throughout the day, the worst of the wind appears to be behind us as vertical mixing will bring down gusts in the 20 mph range at times through the morning. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are anticipated due to an expansive canopy of cirrus advancing eastward from Nebraska and the Ozarks region. Low level cold advection will be partially countered by filtered sunlight making it through the cirrus and highs should only reach the mid to upper 50s, about 30 degrees colder than yesterday and a good 10-14 degrees below normal. Dewpoints in the 20s and 30s should yield relative humidity in the 25-30 percent range this afternoon. Although wind speeds should be decreasing, these dry conditions could still aggravate containment efforts for wildfires. Lastly, mostly clear skies tonight and decreasing winds should allow temps to fall into the 30s inland. It's possible some frost could develop across Pender and Bladen counties, and I've added that to the forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures are expected ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. A few thunderstorms are also possible with the cold frontal passage Friday night, but confidence is low. A strong cold front will approach through the latter half of the week, bringing significant warming to the region as we warm 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs will reach well into the 80s away from the immediate coast (70s) due to the seabreeze moderating temperatures. For now, only our inland climate sites stand a chance at tying/breaking any records. The chances have increased slightly, mainly for Lumberton, NC, to ~30%. Record highs for 3/27 are as follows: Florence, SC: 89 in 2021 Lumberton, NC: 87 in 1950 & 1949 The timing for the front hasn't changed much from the previous forecast, landing late Friday evening into Friday night. Currently there's little to no instability around the time the front moves through so the chances of thunder embedded with the showers is very low. Any isolated thunder may form far inland where the front will move through first. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue over the coming 24 hours. Clouds with bases in the 4000-6000 ft AGL range may persist through sunrise but should push to our south, replaced by scattered to broken cirrus for the remainder of the day. Breezy northeast winds gusting to 20-25 knots should continue through noon, but should finally decrease later in the day as Canadian high pressure crosses the Appalachians and begins to approach the East Coast. Winds should decrease further after sunset. Extended Forecast...There is a low chance of ground fog Thursday morning, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through Friday. The next cold front should reach the area Friday night accompanied by a substantial wind shift and possible thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Last night's cold front was accompanied by a sudden surge of strong north to northeast winds that reached gale force at the UNCW CORMP Wrightsville Beach Offshore buoy and the Frying Pan Shoals buoy 25-35 miles offshore. Piers and nearshore wind gusts stayed below gale force. Breezy northeast winds should remain in the 20-25 kt range throughout the day with seas 5-7 feet inside 20 miles from shore, necessitating that a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Wednesday through Saturday...Rapidly improving conditions late Wednesday/Wednesday night as high pressure builds overhead. The high will start to degrade through the latter half of the week before being squashed to our south Friday as a strong cold front moves through late Friday/Friday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely with the frontal passage through the end of the period due to strong SW winds and seas +6 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...TRA/LEW DISCUSSION...TRA/LEW AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/LEW