FXUS62 KILM 290944 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 544 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Freeze/frost conditions for some inland areas early this morning, mainly inland portions of SE NC and far inland portions of northeast SC. 2) Elevated fire danger continues today. 3) Hazardous marine conditions continue today. 4) Unsettled weather is possible during the latter half of this week, but confidence is low regarding the details. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Freeze/frost conditions for some inland areas early this morning, mainly inland portions of SE NC and far inland portions of northeast SC. High pressure extending southwestward into the Carolinas this morning is helping aid in radiational cooling and temperatures falling to near freezing across parts of the NC Coastal Plain westward into the SC Pee Dee. Thus, the Freeze Warning remains in effect for Inland Pender Co westward into Marlboro Co, although we have cancelled the Freeze Warning for Darlington Co as freezing temps are no longer expected there. Elsewhere across SE NC and NE SC some frost is likely, mainly northwest of Wilmington, Conway, Marion, and Darlington. We have issued a Frost Advisory for Inland Brunswick, Columbus, Northern Horry and Darlington Counties where we think the best coverage of frost will be. KEY MESSAGE 2: Elevated fire danger continues today. Dry conditions are expected to continue today in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage. Although relative humidity and wind will not reach near critical levels our fire partners have requested a Fire Danger Statement for messaging purposes due to the ongoing drought conditions and recent wildfire activity. KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous marine conditions continue today. See the Marine section below for details. KEY MESSAGE 4...Unsettled weather is possible during the latter half of this week, but confidence is low regarding the details. A complicated upper pattern evolution is expected this week. First, an upper trough and associated surface low crossing the northern US during the early to middle part of the week leaves a stalled front extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. With robust surface high pressure stationed near Bermuda, expect gradually warming temps and rising dew points through midweek. Next, a powerful trough is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night while a southern stream shortwave trough and ridge pair cross the country ahead of it. The details pertaining to how the Pacific Northwest trough evolves, and subsequently how the downstream pattern responds, results in low confidence for how unsettled the weather will become as the placement of the stalled front will be affected by these upper features. Furthermore, a strong high pressure center translating across southern Canada on the north side of the stalled front will also influence how far south the front settles. Run-to-run consistency amongst operational model guidance remains low, but ensemble probability trends and cluster analysis tools generally support a drier scenario being the most likely outcome, which has resulted in a slight decrease in overall precip chances each day. The latest model trends have shifted toward a stronger offshore ridge, thus keeping the front further away and precip coverage limited due to stronger subsiding air beneath the ridge. Nevertheless, there should still be daily chances for at least isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms, potentially starting as early as Tuesday, as the warm and humid Bermuda high pressure pattern supports a more summer-like result through the week. Keep a close eye on the mid-late week forecast though, as confidence increases with respect to the front's position and whether a wetter outcome becomes more or less likely. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence through the 12Z TAF period with VFR conditions expected as high pressure prevails across SE NC & NE SC. Low- level moisture will be on the increase as high pressure shifts offshore though and a weak coastal trough develops. Some guidance suggests a very low, although non-zero, risk for marginal MVFR cigs, mainly near the coast. There is also a pretty low risk for fog reducing vsbys late tonight, mainly inland at KFLO/KLBT. Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail, although there will be low chances for minor restrictions, mainly due to early morning fog/stratus and showers starting Wed. By Thu, sea fog moving onshore could also be an issue. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence for Small Craft Advisory conditions into this evening before high pressure to the north moves farther offshore. Gusts up to around 25 kt and seas up to around 7 feet are expected. Monday through Thursday... Offshore high pressure near or east of Bermuda will dominate the weather through the period, resulting in mainly south winds through the week at speeds mainly between 5-15kts. Seas are expected to hold in the 2-4 ft range through the period, driven primarily by persistent southeasterly swells with a period of 7-8 sec. A lingering easterly swell with period around 8-9 sec will decay through Monday night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ087-096-105. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ099-109. SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ017-024. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ023-059. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB/ABW KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/ABW