ACUS11 KWNS 310349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310349
MIZ000-INZ000-310615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Areas affected...Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 310349Z - 310615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms mainly capable of hail should
increase through late evening into the overnight. While the need for
a Watch is uncertain, short-term trends will continue to be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have steadily increased through late
evening across the middle part of Lower Michigan. These storms are
occurring near/just north of a stationary/slow-moving warm front,
and should further increase over the next several hours via
warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent. Additional storm
development/persistence may also occur farther south across southern
Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana via storms that are
developing across northeast Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates
are steadily advecting eastward across the region, and strong shear
through the cloud-bearing layer will support some severe
storms/elevated supercells north of the front. Some damaging wind
potential may also exist with any storm development or persistence
into/across the southern half of Lower Michigan and/or far northern
Indiana, although increasing convective inhibition will tend to be a
detrimental factor.

..Guyer.. 03/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   44608628 44408444 44318308 43728255 43078393 41908473
            41398595 41498695 43208655 44608628

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN