FXUS65 KMSO 081025 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 425 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain and snow showers return this weekend, especially in the mountains. Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon. - A return to more seasonal temperatures by Sunday and Monday along with the unsettled weather. For today, the region will be under general westerly flow aloft, but it will be dry and warm with highs running about 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Breezy westerly winds are expected this afternoon, but will not be as strong as they were yesterday. Gusts to 25 mph are possible along and west of the Divide, and generally gusts near 20 mph across western Montana and Lemhi County. Thursday will run several degrees warmer and wind speeds are anticipated to be lower than today. On Friday, an upper level low pressure system begins to influence California to Oregon with showers. We may start to see high clouds streaming in from the south and highs will warm up into the 60s and 70s. Model guidance has trended a little faster with showers reaching Idaho County and Lemhi County by Friday afternoon. These showers will have a south to north movement, so it's totally possible areas to the north could experience shower activity by Friday night. With the atmosphere being relatively dry, these could produce gusty winds. The NBM has 73% chance for weak instability of CAPE values of 100 J/KG or more focused over southern Idaho County, and over the southern Bitterroot Mountains, so there could be a weak thunderstorm amongst the shower activity. By Saturday, yet another upper low will arrive over Northern California from the Gulf of Alaska. Models eject Friday's system east and northeast towards Utah and Wyoming. This is where the models really start to diverge. The Northern Rockies will remain warmer than average, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. The forecast thereafter hinges on the evolution of the system over Oregon, California and Nevada. No matter what ensemble cluster that you look at, they all have some form of precipitation over us for Sunday into Monday. Many locations have a 60 to 80% chance for precipitation amounts exceeding 0.10" on Sunday. You may be wondering which elevation will see snow...in these Spring-time scenarios, this far out, snow levels could be all over the place. But to give you some sort of hedge, the NBM is showing a spread between 3000 and 7000 feet. The lower snow levels would make sense if we had a cut-off low tracking over us, or some sort of mid-level low/Yellowstone low formation. The higher snow levels would be more indicative to a weaker trough passage and the main trough energy stays to our south. So the bottom line for Sunday into Monday, expect cooler conditions with a chance for precipitation. A sneak peak into early next week... The ensemble clusters depict an active pattern continuing. We could experience a short-lived ridge of high pressure before yet another Pacific system moves onshore. 55% of the clusters depict a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday or Wednesday, 17% show us still in a cyclonic regime, and 28% depict a warm upper ridge over us. && .AVIATION...VFR (mostly clear) flying conditions are expected today, with westerly winds generally staying under 25 mph (20 knots). A relatively dry shortwave passage is expected over the Glacier Region tonight which could bring light northeast winds possibly impacting GPI after 09/0600Z (1200AM MST Thursday). VFR conditions with lighter wind speeds are expected on Thursday. Easterly winds to 15 knots are possible Thursday night just off the deck across western Montana. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$