FXUS65 KMSO 090832
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
232 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Fair weather today through Friday morning

-  Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon.

-  Rain and mountain snow showers return this weekend.

-  Cooler, more seasonal temperatures by Sunday and
   Monday.


Northwesterly flow aloft today will gradually shift to
southwesterly flow by Friday afternoon as a circulation of low
pressure approaches from the west. In the meantime, expect mostly
fair weather today through Friday morning featuring mostly clear
skies and light winds. By Friday, high clouds will begin moving in
from the south as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s. Showers
will reach Idaho and Lemhi counties by Friday afternoon,
spreading north through the evening. Because the air near the
ground will be dry at first, these showers may produce sudden
gusty winds. There is a 15 percent probability of enough
atmospheric energy to trigger a few weak thunderstorms, primarily
over southern Idaho County and the southern Bitterroot Mountains.

Saturday through Monday:
On Saturday, a new storm system will move inland from the Gulf of
Alaska. This will bring moist air into the Northern Rockies. As
temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s, widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening. There is currently a 10 to 20 percent probability for
lightning, with the highest risk in western Idaho and Clearwater
counties.

As the storm moves inland Sunday, there is some uncertainty regarding
its exact path, though most solutions are now keeping the pattern
as an open wave. This setup should keep snow levels higher, above
valley floors. Regardless, expect cooler temperatures and
widespread valley rain and/or mountain snow later this weekend
into early next week.

Extended Outlook:
Looking into next week, the active weather pattern is likely
to continue. We may see a brief break with fair weather before
another Pacific storm arrives. Current data shows a 50 percent
probability of another storm by Tuesday or Wednesday, while 30
percent of models suggest a return to warmer, drier conditions.



&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions today. A subtle shortwave will
move northwest to southeast east of the Continental Divide this
morning, bringing a shift to easterly winds at KGPI this
afternoon. Winds increase to about 10-15 knots this afternoon at
KBTM. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds prevail through
tonight.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$