FXUS62 KILM 131841 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 241 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. A 500 mb ridge centered across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to sustained dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will maintain a warm south to southwesterly surface wind direction. The beaches will remain considerably cooler than inland areas due to onshore flow and daily seabreezes off water temperatures still in the 60s. High temperatures in the 80s each day through Sunday have a reasonably good chance of exceeding 90 degrees inland Friday and Saturday, both days when models suggest the upper ridge will be at its strongest across the eastern Carolinas. There should be too little deep moisture present during the passage of an upper disturbance Thursday night for any rain chances to develop. In addition, increased fire danger is possible starting Wednesday. Wind and relative humidity will be marginal, but coordination with state forestry agencies is expected throughout this week with the extremely dry weather continuing. Record highs within 2 degrees or being tied/broken later this week: Wilmington: Friday Apr 17 record high is 89 from 2006. Florence: Thursday Apr 16 record high is 90 from 2006, and Saturday April 18 record high is 93 from 1981. Lumberton: Friday Apr 17 record high is 91 from 2006, and Saturday Apr 18 record high is 91 from 1941 KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF are in good agreement showing a strong upper trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes on Sunday, April 19. Height falls ahead of this feature should flatten the Southeast U.S. upper ridge early next week. Given the orientation of the flow ahead of the trough there's only a very limited potential for Gulf inflow ahead of the its passage on Sunday. A surface cold front should move across the eastern Carolinas sometime Sunday, accompanied by what looks to be our only non-zero precipitation chances over the coming seven days. Even then we're only talking about a 20 percent chance Sunday afternoon and evening. Three-week rainfall totals of 0.2 to 0.6 inches are only 10 to 30 percent of normal values. Six month rainfall is 9 inches below normal in Wilmington and almost 11 inches below normal in North Myrtle Beach. Ongoing drought, currently classified across our portion of the Carolinas as D1 (moderate drought) to D2 (severe drought) could worsen in the weeks ahead. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through the rest of the day. Some stratocu ~4 kft with south to southwest winds ~6-10 kts will stick around through the afternoon until sunset. Inland sights could see a brief shift to southerly later this evening as the sea breeze travels inland but then winds should become lighter late tonight. This will introduce the chance for fog at all sites, but the extent of which is still uncertain at this time. For now, it appears SC may have a better chance for restrictions tonight, but they may remain to our south. While not in the TAFs currently due to uncertainty, would not be surprised if there is a trend towards BR ~06Z with subsequent updates. Expect another seabreeze in the afternoon Tuesday. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the week due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... Bermuda high pressure remains in control with predominantly SW winds in place. Light SW winds overnight will increase into Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze. Winds will become more southerly ~13-18 kts. Seas will be largely 2-4 ft with an increasing southerly wind wave in the afternoon and a long period ESE swell, 2-3 ft at 10 seconds. Tuesday Night through Saturday... Not much change in the marine forecast for the rest of the week with dry weather and the S to SW wind direction continuing, with speeds varying from around 10 kt during the mornings to as much as 15-20 kt nearshore during the afternoons and evenings due to daily seabreezes. 2-3 ft seas will consist of an east-southeasterly 9-10 second swell plus local 4-5 second wind waves. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...LEW MARINE...MAS/LEW