FXUS63 KBIS 160625 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 125 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wide range in temperatures from north to south Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Periods of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Breezy Thursday through Thursday night, windy Friday. - Well below average temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Tweaked POPs and sky cover a bit to better reflect latest radar and satellite imagery. Other weather elements on track. Area of showers in northeast Montana continue to move east into northwest North Dakota early this morning. Cloud bases rather high, but still seeing some reports of moisture reaching the surface. Will also maintain a wintry mix far north. UPDATE Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 We slowed down the arrival of clouds and also precip chances just a bit late this evening and overnight. Also lowered pops a little, limiting likely pops to right along the International Border. There remains a signal for freezing precipitation along the border in the north central so will have to monitor but qpf looks to be very light so impacts should be minimal if this trend holds. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 No changes needed to the early evening update. Mid and high clouds working their way east across the state. Mild temperatures and generally light winds into the early evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quiet and mild weather continues for today with highs this afternoon mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Otherwise, upper level low that is currently over British Columbia will slide east across southern Canada through Friday. For tonight, WAA off associated southwesterly flow aloft may help produce some light rain mainly in the northwest and in the far north central. Later in the night and into Thursday morning, a wintry mix, including light freezing rain, is possible mainly near the International border. A cold surface frontal boundary associated with aforementioned upper low will begin passing through the state from north to south Thursday. This will result in three primary things. First, breezy northerly winds. Second, a large difference in high temperatures with areas along the International Border much colder than those near the ND/SD border (exactly how far south the largest gradient sets up is always difficult to forecast). And third, additional precipitation chances initially starting in the west Thursday afternoon, then passing from west to east across the state Thursday evening through Friday morning. Initially, this precipitation should start mostly as rain in the afternoon before transitioning mostly to snow in the evening and overnight hours. Overall, snow totals should remain light with high probabilities of at least a dusting in all but northwestern North Dakota. NBM probabilities of at least an inch are around 20 to 40 percent from south central into northeastern North Dakota, though a band of heavier snow setting up isn't out of the question. All in all, expecting up to an inch of snow with localized higher amounts possible. Once this system moves out, expect mostly dry conditions through early next week. After which, there are indications of a more active pattern towards the middle of next week. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be well below average with highs in the 30s and 40s, though more in the 30s on Friday and more in the 40s on Saturday. Lows, on the other hands, will range be mostly in the 20s on Thursday and Saturday night, and even cooler and in the upper teens to low 20s Friday night. A warming trend is then on tap to start next week with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s by Monday, and lows remaining above freezing through midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon across western and central North Dakota. The exception may be the far northwest and north central, near the International Border, where MVFR ceilings will approach from the north and may impact KXWA. Widespread MVFR ceilings then develop Thursday evening at all terminals, with a chance for IFR cigs as well, as a weather disturbance brings rain and snow chances to the region. Generally light easterly winds early this morning, then northeast winds across the north and southerly winds in the south, both becoming gusty up to 25 knots. Winds then turn northerly across the forecast area Thursday afternoon as a cold front pushes south, with winds remaining gusty to 25 knots. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...NH