FXUS63 KFGF 192350
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely Monday in
  northwest Minnesota. Near critical conditions may develop in
  southeast North Dakota if gusty winds align with low relative
  humidity.

- Additional chances for near critical to critical fire weather
  conditions are expected through mid-week.

- An unsettled pattern brings rain and thunderstorm chances to
  the region Thursday and rain and snow chances Friday into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...Synopsis...

Heights are beginning to increase across the region this
afternoon as large scale ridging begins to propagate towards our
area. This will allow for increasing temperatures through the
week and near daily potential for critical fire weather
conditions as dry air lingers through the week.

For today, expect slightly warmer conditions beneath generally
light winds and minimal weather impacts. As we progress into the
evening and overnight, freezing temperatures are expected to
return once again with minimal weather impacts.

Temperatures through the week should peak into the 70s and 80s,
with the warmest temperatures felt in the far south. As ridging
moves away, southwest flow will develop across the United
States, bringing a high potential for rain and eventually snow
as mean temperatures fall towards the weekend. Some instability
does advect into the region and with a steep surface flow
propagating over us, there is the potential for early season
strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, but predictability is
low at this time given concerns with surface-based versus
elevated convection, which will largely drive hazards.

...FIRE WEATHER...

Large scale warm temperatures through the week combined with
limited moisture return are expected to create near critical to
critical fire weather conditions through the week.

For tomorrow, southerly winds are expected to increase with
sustained winds generally between 20-30 mph, with occasional
gusts to 40 mph by late morning/early afternoon as a strong
southerly jet propagates east. Moisture return from southerly
winds is expected to be minimal with dewpoints ranging in the
low to mid 30s, allowing for relative humidity values to
approach 20% by mid to late afternoon. The maxima of the jet is
expected to be over northwest Minnesota when peak mixing will
occur, so the expectation is for critical conditions (low RH and
high wind gusts) to mainly remain in northwest Minnesota. Having
said that, critical conditions could spread westward into
eastern North Dakota if winds align with low relative humidity.
At a minimum, expect near critical conditions to develop in
southeast North Dakota. Towards the mid to late afternoon, a
weak cold front may bring relative humidity values up to 30-50%
briefly, but a substantial wind shift of 90-150 degrees is
expected behind this, so fire concerns are expected to continue.

With limited precipitation expected through the week and ridging
amplifying across the Northern Plains, ERC maximums should
continue to rise with HRB values indicating ongoing dead fuels.
These combined with relative humidity values through the week
lends to expectations that at least near critical conditions can
be expected through Wednesday every afternoon with the potential
to push into critical conditions on days with gustier winds. At
this time, the greatest probability timeframe for that is
Wednesday afternoon. While NBM relative humidities appear fairly
high (25-30%), this is mainly due to limited CAM impact on NBM
output and will likely fall towards more critical criteria as we
get closer to mid-week. The heightened fire weather pattern will
eventually end as a widespread precipitation system pushes into
the region late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period, but gusty winds will bring
aviation impacts on Monday. Overnight, winds will slowly
increase out of the south. A period of LLWS is forecasted at
KDVL late tonight into early Monday. LLWS may briefly sneak
into KGFK, but was left out of the TAF as predictability on this
occuring is low. Winds will increase drastically after sunrise
at KGFK, KFAR and KTVF. Southwest winds with gusts of 30 knots
or greater are forecasted for several hours from mid morning
into the early afternoon at both KGFK and KFAR. These 30+ knot
gusts may creep into KTVF, but at this time it appears to be a
lower probability scenario, and if it were to occur, it would be
brief (1-2 hours) in duration. Winds decrease and switch to the
west late in the TAF period, but will remain elevated above 12
knots into the evening hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Rafferty