FXUS62 KILM 301819
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
219 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River for
minor coastal flooding during this evening's high tide.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Beneficial rain expected from late Friday through Saturday.

2) The Lower Cape Fear River should experience minor coastal
flooding during the next few evening high tide cycles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Beneficial rain expected from late Friday
through Saturday.

A few areas of low pressure are likely to track along a generally
stalled front nearby to our southeast late week while unseasonably
deep moisture and plenty of shortwave energy and upper jet
divergence move into the area ahead of an upper trough. These
conditions should support the best chance for widespread decent
(>0.5") rainfall in quite a while, mainly from late Friday night
thru Saturday. The 13Z NBM probs for 48-hr rainfall totals >1"
from Friday through Saturday night are at least 50% across all
of SE NC and NE SC, generally highest east of I-95. Some of the
high-res deterministic/ensemble model data even indicates the
potential for localized amounts of 2+". Although we are
currently seeing significant drought conditions across the area,
these higher end rainfall amounts could lead to minor flooding,
especially if it occurs quickly and over more vulnerable urban
areas. Although we should stay on the cooler/northern side of
the front through the event, we could still see a few rumbles of
thunder (mainly due to elevated instability), especially near
the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2: The Lower Cape Fear River should experience
minor coastal flooding during the next few evening high tide
cycles.

Latest gage forecasts for the Lower Cape Fear River has it reaching
minor coastal flood thresholds (5.5 ft mllw) during this evenings
high tide cycle as well as the next couple of evenings.
At this time, the next few evening forecasts reach above 5.5 ft
mllw. This will effect locations in the vicinity of the river from
downtown Wilmington and southward. Look for the potential for minor
flooding to occur in generally a 3 hour window centered around high
tide. High tide Thu evening is at 952 pm and Fri evening at 1032 pm
and Sat evening at 1111 pm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR to dominate this afternoon through the end of the 24 hr
period. N winds 5 to 10 kt will continue to veer to NE through
tonight as the front sinks further south of the area and sfc
high pressure ridges south across the region. By Fri aftn winds
will veer to a more easterly direction.

Extended Forecast...Expect flight restrictions late Fri into Sat as
the frontal boundary lifts northward to or just south of the area
and sfc low develops along it and pushes out to sea. Looking at
mainly stratiform rains and low ceilings with MVFR/IFR likely Fri
night thru Sat evening. VFR returns late Sat night thru Mon.
Fog/low clouds possible Mon night as low-level moisture returns.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Cold front will stall south of the area tonight
while high pressure from the north ridges across the area, resulting
with a NNE-NE surge of 15 to 20 kt winds with periodic 25 kt gusts
across the offshore waters toward morning. As high pressure shifts
offshore north of the waters on Friday, expect northeasterly winds
of 15 kts or so to continue veering to a more easterly direction
while weakening to around 10 kts or so. Low pressure will begin to
develop along the front to the south through Fri aftn. Seas
generally 2 to 3 ft with some 4 footers across the offshore waters
later tonight.

Friday night through Monday Night... A few areas of low pressure are
likely to move along a basically stalled front offshore late week.
Increasing northerly winds on Saturday could necessitate a Small
Craft Advisory for at least the NC nearshore coastal waters as gusts
reach near 25 kt and seas possibly near 6 ft. Gusts could also reach
close to gale force (34+ kt) beyond 20 nm Saturday into Saturday
night. Winds/seas will subside a bit Saturday night as strengthening
low pressure moves farther off to the northeast and then much moreso
Sunday as high pressure builds in. The high will then migrate
offshore setting up a return of southerly winds starting Sunday
night with benign conditions persisting through Monday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
 tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/RGZ
DISCUSSION...RJB/RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ