FXUS63 KBIS 151824 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of light snow along and south of Highway 12 in far southwest North Dakota today afternoon and evening. Accumulations are expected to remain under one inch. - Colder temperatures will continue through Friday. Wind chills could approach 20 below zero across northern half of the state Friday morning, with breezy conditions during the day. - Saturday will be windy across the central and the eastern half of the state. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will return Saturday through much of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 A widespread stratus deck exists over most of the area early this afternoon behind a weak front moving through, although daytime satellite imagery reveals we are starting to have some dissipation of the clouds and seeing some pockets of sun. Still some locations with flurries, mainly in the north central but we did see a few snowflakes here in Bismarck. Freshened up mention of flurries otherwise going forecast looks good. .UPDATE... Issued at 928 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 A broad surface high was centered in southwest Saskatchewan this morning, while a leading cold front was oriented west-east through central North Dakota. Low stratus was present along and behind the cold front, with patchy fog and scattered flurries occurring underneath the stratus deck. Did add in mention of fog and expanded area of flurries with this update in line with current observations. Visibilities are only minorly reduced so not much of a concern at this point, with improvement expected through the day as the stratus deck continues moving south. .UPDATE... Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Low clouds continue to move across the western and northern half of the state this morning. A cold front continues to push across the northern half of the state shifting the wind out of the north. Flurries are still anticipated across portions of northern North Dakota under the low stratus this morning. Some observations are showing temperatures as low as 3 below in the north central. While low stratus has kept temperatures warmer across the northwest. No other updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 A cold front located over southern Saskatchewan continues to push southward this morning bring forth some low clouds and light flurries across the north. This front will open the door for a colder airmass to dive into the region later this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to to sit in the lower teens up north down to the upper 20s south. Overnight lows are forecast to be colder then this morning as an Arctic airmass pushes southward. Another short wave will pass over South Dakota bringing in a slight chance of snow 20 to 40 percent in the far southwest. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be around 10 below zero north to single digits south. An upper level trough will dive over southern Manitoba resulting in strong pressure rises on the backside of the trough. This will strengthen the pressure gradient across the Northern Plains resulting in breezy conditions tomorrow. Forecast soundings, however do not have strong winds at the top of the mix layer limiting wind gust below advisory criteria. Winds are forecast to pick up early tomorrow morning, in combination with cold temperatures wind chills will approach 20 below across the north and 5 below zero across the south. High temperatures tomorrow will be the coldest across much of the state expect the very far north this week, but overnight lows will increase 5 to 10 degrees. The upper level pattern is going to quickly transition this weekend as ridging out west shifts eastward over the Northern Rockies. This will push a warm front through the region Saturday with warm westerly winds. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 20s north to the lower 40s south. Saturday could be a windy day as Fridays system pushes eastward. Forecast soundings have stronger winds at the top of the mix layer then Friday resulting in a windy conditions. The GFS and NAM has a 50kt jet max at 900 mb passing over the central North Dakota. Cold advection and warmer temperatures will help mix winds down to the surface Saturday resulting in windy conditions across central and eastern North Dakota. A Hudson Bay upper low will pushes eastward transitioning into a broad trough over northeastern Canada. The aforementioned upper level ridge will strengthen over the Northern Rockies this weekend into next week. This will place North Dakota in northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern side of the upper level ridge through next week. Much of North Dakota is forecast to remain on the equatorward side of northwesterly flow resulting in warm above normal weather. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile spreads for high temperatures is still fairly large Tuesday into next weekend with a spread of 10 to 15 degrees. However, the NBM 25th percentile is in the upper 30s to lower 40s resulting high confidence for warmer weather next week. This ridging pattern will keep the warm and dry pattern through next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Widespread low VFR to MVFR deck continues across much of western and central North Dakota, although it is expected to continue dissipating through the afternoon and evening. There is scattered fog and flurries underneath the stratus, occasionally reducing visibility, with the most likely impacts at KMOT. North-northwest winds this afternoon will stay around 10 knots, with winds shifting more northwesterly and increasing towards the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Jones DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Jones